Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
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116 FXUS64 KHUN 020203 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 903 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024 ...New NEAR TERM... .NEAR TERM... (Tonight) Issued at 900 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024 The latest analysis this evening indicates a N-S oriented frontal/convergence boundary was located to our west across Miss extending northward into the lower OH Valley. Previously, a conspicuous absence of convective development along the line was noted, but recently showers/thunderstorms have begun to develop. Granted, activity appears less extensive/intense than anticipated by the latest hi-res CAMs, but nevertheless, recent development has finally occurred. At present, the more concentrated activity is located just upstream from Colbert/Franklin Counties and is moving slowly ESEWRD toward those counties. Further development is anticipated overnight, but probably not on a broad scale given limited dynamic deep forcing and instability. With that being said, the threat for severe weather appears to be small, with any concerns related to gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall. So far, MRMS estimates have indicated ~1 to 1.25 inch/hour rates in some of the heavier cells in NE Miss and this would tend to translate eastward overnight. Probabilities for thunder were reduced in the grids a little for the overnight period due to the latest observations and expectations for limited coverage of deep convection. && .SHORT TERM... (Sunday through Monday night) Issued at 207 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024 Lingering showers/embedded tstms will then begin to gradually taper off the east on Sun, as the upper trough axis moves east of the mid TN Valley. Low to medium chances (20-50%) remain in the forecast for Sun with the better chances east of I-65. With less rainfall in place, afternoon highs on Sun look to climb more into the lower/mid 80s. Given the previous rainfall, patchy dense fog will then be possible late Sun night, as lows again fall predom into the lower/mid 60s. This brief reprieve in rainfall will come to an end as low end rain chances around 20% return Mon/Mon night, as a series of weak upper disturbances begin to traverses eastward over much of the region. Minimal deep layer shear should again offset the prob for more organized tstms, although SBCAPE values increasing to around 2K J/kg may translate into a few stronger storms capable of gusty winds/brief heavy rainfall. Afternoon temps will trend a little higher on Mon, with highs mainly in the mid/upper 80s, before temps fall more into the mid 60s/near 70F late Mon night. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Friday) Issued at 329 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024 An unsettled pattern will persist through mid week. Another shortwave will slide into the TN Valley on Tuesday bringing low/medium chances (30-50%) of showers and thunderstorms. Upstream, an upper level low will ride just north of the U.S/Canadian border and phase with a shortwave located in the Northern Plains on Wednesday. The associated sfc low will have a cold front extending all the way down the MS Valley. This set up will be slow to make eastward progress due to the blocky pattern just east of the Great Lakes. Prefrontal showers and storms will arrive on Wednesday and believe coverage and the threat for heavy rainfall will increase if another shortwave ends up scooting through vs staying off to our north. The front will push through some time on Thursday and POPs will taper off behind it. Timing still isn`t great on exactly when the front will move through,as this model cycle has it earlier on Thursday than yestrday`s run. Will monitor trends to adjust timing and storm hazards. Otherwise, daytime highs will run in the low/mid 80s with lows in the upper 60s ahead of the front. Behind the front on Friday, we won`t see a drastic temp change but will have highs in the lower 80s with lower humidity and lows in the lower 60s. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 650 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024 A complicated TAF forecast here for the 00Z update as there remains some uncertainty about the potential for development of SHRA/TSRA along a low-lvl boundary draped to our west. Hi-res CAM guidance in recent runs has continued to generate sctd convection along the boundary, however this has not come to fruition in the coverage/intensity suggested. While low-lvl convergence along the boundary is likely to continue, upr-lvl support has apparently waned with the transition of the mid/upr low to the east, and extensive clouds/showers today have limited instability in the immediate environment as well. So, the KHSV/KMSL TAF forecasts will offer a more optimistic tune and feature lower SHRA impacts than previously. Satellite/radar data suggests some lgt SHRA activity could still occur through the evening. While the risk for TSRA appears to have diminished for overnight into the morning, amendments could be possible. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...KDW SHORT TERM....09 LONG TERM....JMS AVIATION...KDW