Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
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556 FXUS64 KHUN 311752 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 1252 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024 ...New AVIATION... .NEAR TERM... (Rest of Today) Issued at 1012 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024 A return of moisture and increase in cloud cover should continue, as a system that impacted parts of Texas yesterday heads eastward. These clouds as they become more dense, could temper overall heating somewhat as the day progresses. High temperatures should warm into the mid 80s despite the clouds. A leading area of shower and thunderstorm activity with this system was heading more north than east, extending from north of New Orleans to Memphis and the Ozarks. More numerous convection was occurring further to the west over eastern Texas and western Lousiana. Some of the convection over Mississippi could reach our western areas later today. The rain chances and forecast temperatures in the grids looks good, thus no big changes were need. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Sunday night) Issued at 219 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Tonight will be mostly dry especially for areas along and east of I-65 as the shortwave trough remains to our west but will continue to move into the area into the morning hours. Southeast flow will increase overnight as well, becoming breezy by Saturday morning. Overnight lows will be limited to the mid to upper 60s with 20-30% for showers and storms west of I-65. Widespread showers and storms are forecast Saturday and Sunday, with the heaviest rain expected Saturday and Saturday night. SPC has placed much of the area in a Marginal or Level 1 of 5 risk for severe storms on Saturday, with the risk of damaging straight line winds. As a sfc low lifts north into the Midwest, a limited but marginally supportive shear profile may support the risk for wet microbursts within multi- cell clusters. Will also mention a low risk for flooding in addition to damaging winds, as the atmospheric column will be primed for heavy rain with PWATs between 1.5-1.7". There is some model disagreement regarding how much rain we will see through the day on Sunday, but expect most areas to see at least light rain before the end of the day. With cloudy skies and rain in the forecast, expect highs to be limited to the lower 80s both Saturday and Sunday with warm overnight lows in the mid to upper 60s. Rain chances will decrease significantly by Sunday night (<20%) and fog may become the primary concern depending on how quickly the clouds clear out. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Thursday) Issued at 219 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024 A shortwave across the TN Valley will start off the unsettled pattern that will persist through mid week. An upper level trough in the Northern Plains will develop a sfc low and associated cold front on Tuesday. Another shortwave will slide out ahead of this system to keep low chance (20-30%) of showers and storms in the forecast through Tuesday. The sfc low will remain up in the Great Lakes or just north of there, the cold front will push southeast into the region on Wednesday. We will see an uptick in the coverage of showers and storms (30-50%) before the front pushes through on Thursday. Not expecting severe storms at this time, but will monitor trends as we get closer to the event. Ahead of the front, daytime highs will start off in the lower 80s and climb to encroach 90 degrees by Wednesday with lows around 70 degrees. Behind the front, temps will only slightly improve. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1252 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024 VFR weather should prevail into the late evening. A storm system nearing the region will bring scattered showers overspreading the area from west to east in the late night and Sat morning. Better chances for thunder was continued for KMSL given their further west location, along with temporary VIS/CIG reductions in the heavier showers. Otherwise, SE winds should range around 10-15kt, with some higher gusts this afternoon, and a few hours after daybreak Sat. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...RSB SHORT TERM....25 LONG TERM....JMS AVIATION...RSB