269
FXUS64 KHUN 201724
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1224 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of Today)
Issued at 930 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024

Dry and warmer weather will continue today, as upper ridging
builds aloft and sfc high pressure remains to our east. This will
keep warm southerly flow in place, causing afternoon temps to rise
into the mid to upper 80s. Based on current temperature trends,
did bump highs up a degree or two which brings some of the more
urban locations close to the 90 degree mark today. Otherwise, we
will enjoy mostly sunny skies this morning and a few increasing
clouds through the afternoon with light southeasterly winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 134 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024

High pressure over the Southern Appalachians will be the
predominant weather feature across the region Tuesday and
Wednesday, promoting mostly clear and dry weather across the
region through midweek. Highs in the 85-90 degree range will be
common both days as southerly winds help to reinforce the warm air
mass -- while also advecting some Gulf moisture back into the
area. This can be seen with dewpoints climbing back into the mid
60s which will help to keep nighttime temperatures in the 65-70
degree range over a bulk of the Tennessee Valley. A slow moving
cold front to the northwest of the region will slowly approach the
area on Thursday. Convection riding along this boundary may
provide some cloud cover and lower-end chances (20-40%) for
showers/storms (favoring northwest Alabama and southern middle
Tennessee) during the afternoon hours. However, most areas will
remain dry -- with continued warmth (highs in the mid/upper 80s)
being the main story.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Sunday)
Issued at 134 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024

A mid/upper shortwave pivoting from the Ozarks into the Mid SOuth
will finally push the aforementioned front into portions of the
Tennessee Valley by late Thursday night into Friday and
subsequently bring medium to high (40-70%) chance for showers and
storms to the area. General view of the storm environment would
favor plenty of CAPE with sufficient shear to support at least a
few organized strong storms, with gusty winds and hail (along with
locally heavy downpours) being the main threats on Friday. We`ll
remain in a fairly active pattern through most of the upcoming
Memorial Day holiday weekend, with zonal low aloft allowing for
additional shortwaves to traverse the region. Subsequently,
medium chances (40-60%)for showers/storms will be present in the
forecast both Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024

VFR conditions will persist through the TAF period with scattered
mid to high level clouds this afternoon. A few isolated showers
will be possible primarily near KMSL, but confidence in rain
affecting the terminal is too low to include in the TAF at this
time. Light SSE winds will prevail through tomorrow morning,
veering more to the S/SSW by 18z.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...25
SHORT TERM....AMP
LONG TERM....AMP
AVIATION...25