517
FXUS64 KHUN 011516
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1016 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

...New NEAR TERM...

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of Today)
Issued at 1016 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Various bands of showers/embedded tstms continue to move NNE thru
much of the central TN Valley this Sat morning. The air mass has
been fairly worked over across much of the area and the prob for
much recovery this afternoon looks minimal given a persistent
cloud deck. Afternoon highs may struggle to surpass the lower/mid
70s, which is around 10F below normal for this time of the yr.
SBCAPE values this afternoon may likewise struggle to reach 1K
J/kg, which will tend to limit the prob for more organized tstms.
Effective Bulk Shear values near 30kt may at least allow for some
gusty winds with a few of these storms this afternoon while PWATs
approaching 1.60 inches may translate into some brief heavy rain.
The overall prob for stronger tstms this afternoon though looks
fairly meager, although numerous to widespread showers/embedded
tstms will remain in the forecast for much of the day.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 329 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Rain chances will begin to decrease tonight and remain lower on
Sunday, but still expect to see some scattered showers and
embedded thunderstorms through the remainder of the weekend given
the moist airmass in place. Low to medium chances (30-50%) for
showers and storms are forecast on Sunday afternoon with afternoon
highs a little warmer in the low to mid 80s. Will see a break in
the rain by Sunday night into Monday morning, where the primary
concern will be fog development overnight given the recent
rainfall and light winds. Expect low chances (20-30%) for
diurnally driven showers and storms Monday afternoon with highs
climbing back closer to seasonal norms, topping out in the mid to
upper 80s. Overnight lows will be in the mid to upper 60s through
the short term period.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 329 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

An unsettled pattern will persist through mid week. Another shortwave
will slide into the TN Valley on Tuesday bringing low/medium chances
(30-50%) of showers and thunderstorms. Upstream, an upper level
low will ride just north of the U.S/Canadian border and phase with a
shortwave located in the Northern Plains on Wednesday. The associated
sfc low will have a cold front extending all the way down the MS
Valley. This set up will be slow to make eastward progress due to the
blocky pattern just east of the Great Lakes. Prefrontal showers and
storms will arrive on Wednesday and believe coverage and the threat
for heavy rainfall will increase if another shortwave ends up
scooting through vs staying off to our north. The front will push
through some time on Thursday and POPs will taper off behind it.
Timing still isn`t great on exactly when the front will move
through,as this model cycle has it earlier on Thursday than
yestrday`s run. Will monitor trends to adjust timing and storm hazards.
Otherwise, daytime highs will run in the low/mid 80s with lows in
the upper 60s ahead of the front. Behind the front on Friday, we
won`t see a drastic temp change but will have highs in the lower 80s
with lower humidity and lows in the lower 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 648 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

MVFR to IFR conditions are likely today as widespread showers and
thunderstorms impact the area. Southeast wind gusts up to 25kts
will be possible at times this afternoon as well as a low chance
for strong winds due to thunderstorms. Coverage will start to
lower from west to east overnight, but IFR to perhaps LIFR cigs
are expected during this timeframe. Amendments may be needed
throughout the day as rainfall varies in intensity.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...09
SHORT TERM....25
LONG TERM....JMS
AVIATION...25