331
FXUS64 KHUN 310719
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
219 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 219 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024

High cirrus can be seen increasing over the area early this
morning, with current temperatures ranging from the upper 60s over
NW AL to mid 50s over NE AL. Will continue to see the increase in
clouds as an upper trough exits off the northern Atlantic coast
and broad upper ridging pushes warm and moist flow into the area.
A slow moving warm front will lift north of the area today, and
rain chances will increase over northwest AL later this afternoon.
Given diurnal heating, a few thunderstorms cannot be ruled out
before sunset. Otherwise, expect the increase in clouds to limit
highs to the mid 80s with winds veering from the east to the
southeast by this afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 219 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024

Tonight will be mostly dry especially for areas along and east of
I-65 as the shortwave trough remains to our west but will continue
to move into the area into the morning hours. Southeast flow will
increase overnight as well, becoming breezy by Saturday morning.
Overnight lows will be limited to the mid to upper 60s with 20-30%
for showers and storms west of I-65. Widespread showers and storms
are forecast Saturday and Sunday, with the heaviest rain expected
Saturday and Saturday night. SPC has placed much of the area in a
Marginal or Level 1 of 5 risk for severe storms on Saturday, with
the risk of damaging straight line winds. As a sfc low lifts north
into the Midwest, a limited but marginally supportive shear
profile may support the risk for wet microbursts within multi-
cell clusters. Will also mention a low risk for flooding in
addition to damaging winds, as the atmospheric column will be
primed for heavy rain with PWATs between 1.5-1.7".

There is some model disagreement regarding how much rain we will
see through the day on Sunday, but expect most areas to see at
least light rain before the end of the day. With cloudy skies and
rain in the forecast, expect highs to be limited to the lower 80s
both Saturday and Sunday with warm overnight lows in the mid to
upper 60s. Rain chances will decrease significantly by Sunday
night (<20%) and fog may become the primary concern depending on
how quickly the clouds clear out.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 219 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024

A shortwave across the TN Valley will start off the unsettled
pattern that will persist through mid week. An upper level trough
in the Northern Plains will develop a sfc low and associated cold
front on Tuesday. Another shortwave will slide out ahead of this
system to keep low chance (20-30%) of showers and storms in the
forecast through Tuesday. The sfc low will remain up in the Great
Lakes or just north of there, the cold front will push southeast
into the region on Wednesday. We will see an uptick in the
coverage of showers and storms (30-50%) before the front pushes
through on Thursday. Not expecting severe storms at this time, but
will monitor trends as we get closer to the event.

Ahead of the front, daytime highs will start off in the lower 80s
and climb to encroach 90 degrees by Wednesday with lows around 70
degrees. Behind the front, temps will only slightly improve.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1025 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024

VFR conditions are expected at both terminals through the TAF
period. Fog is not expected to develop, given current dewpoints
depressions of 10 to 15 degrees seen in observations. Winds
continue to stay around 5 knots as well at both terminals. Expect
a period of more persistent mid/high cloud cover at KMSL after 9Z.
Cannot rule out a -SHRA near the KMSL terminal around daybreak. A
PROB30 group for -TSRA was included between 16Z and 20Z at KMSL
as well as a warm front moves northward closer to that terminal
and daytime instability increases.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...25
SHORT TERM....25
LONG TERM....JMS
AVIATION...KTW