Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
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279 FXUS64 KHUN 291743 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 1243 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024 ...New AVIATION... .NEAR TERM... (Rest of Today) Issued at 922 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024 A cold front can be seen in observations extending from the Ohio Valley southwest through the Nashville, TN area and into SW TN. Drier air is in place behind this frontal boundary as evidence of dewpoint values in the upper 40s to 50s seen in surface analysis behind the front. Currently, dewpoints ahead of the front are in the upper 50s to lower 60s and temperatures are in the 70 to 75 degree range. This front in most guidance will continue to sink southeast into the early/mid afternoon hours into northern Alabama. Based on progged 1000 mb winds in several models, think that the front will end up oriented in a NW to SE fashion. This may allow portions of NW Alabama to remain warmer this afternoon (highs in the 80 to 85 degree range). Further east, highs will likely be a bit cooler with stronger cold air advection occurring behind the front in those locations. Highs into the upper 70s to lower 80s looks reasonable in those locations. Some isolated to scattered mid/high clouds could form along the front this afternoon. These should have little affect on afternoon temperatures. Low level moisture as per OHX and BMX 7 AM soundings should limit mixing down of dewpoints today. If temperatures end up being 2 or 3 degrees higher than expected, than some areas (mainly southern middle TN and portions of NE Alabama) could experience more efficient mixing of drier air aloft down to the surface. This could end up lowering minimum relative humidity values lower than currently forecasted. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Saturday) Issued at 1229 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024 A west-northwest flow pattern will be in place the next couple of days. This will bring a couple of weak shortwaves from the southern Plains through AR and southeast through MS into central and southern AL tonight into Thursday. At this point, any shower chances associated with these will be very low and mainly south and west of the Shoals and Huntsville areas. On Friday into Saturday, a narrow ridge axis at 5h will shift east into the OH and eastern TN valleys, allowing a trough axis to enter the lower MO and MS valleys. A lead shortwave ahead of the trough may arrive as early as Friday night into early Saturday, but an initially dry low level atmosphere may delay arrival of showers or thunderstorms until later on Saturday or Saturday night. Thus, PoPs will remain in the low to mid chance range. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Tuesday) Issued at 1229 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024 The trough will shift east through the region Saturday night into Sunday with varying degrees of amplification of the surface low, front and convection. The GFS seems a bit over amplified in this regard, but will monitor future model trends. In any case, the main hazards over the weekend will be locally heavy rainfall. Rain chances will decrease Sunday night into Monday as the mid to upper flow weakens across the southern U.S. However, with continued south-southwest low level flow, a moist and unstable environment will be supportive of chances of showers and thunderstorms despite weak QG forcing into early to the middle of next week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1242 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024 VFR conditions are expected at both terminals. A weakening front will push southeast through both terminals later this afternoon. Winds will become more north northeasterly tomorrow. Some SCT to BKN CIGS could come close to KMSL during the early to mid-afternoon hours, but left them out for now since the CIGS would likely be VFR anyway. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...KTW SHORT TERM....17 LONG TERM....17 AVIATION...KTW