113
FXUS64 KHUN 201043
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
543 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 134 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024

Tranquil weather across the Tennessee Valley early this morning,
with high pressure established across the Deep South. Fog has
been slow to develop so far early this morning, but do believe
there is still a brief window around daybreak (09-12z) where some
patchy valley fog may develop. Otherwise, clear, calm, and dry
conditions will allow for ample sunshine/heating as highs leap
into the mid to upper 80s in most locations by this afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 134 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024

High pressure over the Southern Appalachians will be the
predominant weather feature across the region Tuesday and
Wednesday, promoting mostly clear and dry weather across the
region through midweek. Highs in the 85-90 degree range will be
common both days as southerly winds help to reinforce the warm air
mass -- while also advecting some Gulf moisture back into the
area. This can be seen with dewpoints climbing back into the mid
60s which will help to keep nighttime temperatures in the 65-70
degree range over a bulk of the Tennessee Valley. A slow moving
cold front to the northwest of the region will slowly approach the
area on Thursday. Convection riding along this boundary may
provide some cloud cover and lower-end chances (20-40%) for
showers/storms (favoring northwest Alabama and southern middle
Tennessee) during the afternoon hours. However, most areas will
remain dry -- with continued warmth (highs in the mid/upper 80s)
being the main story.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Sunday)
Issued at 134 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024

A mid/upper shortwave pivoting from the Ozarks into the Mid SOuth
will finally push the aforementioned front into portions of the
Tennessee Valley by late Thursday night into Friday and
subsequently bring medium to high (40-70%) chance for showers and
storms to the area. General view of the storm environment would
favor plenty of CAPE with sufficient shear to support at least a
few organized strong storms, with gusty winds and hail (along with
locally heavy downpours) being the main threats on Friday. We`ll
remain in a fairly active pattern through most of the upcoming
Memorial Day holiday weekend, with zonal low aloft allowing for
additional shortwaves to traverse the region. Subsequently,
medium chances (40-60%)for showers/storms will be present in the
forecast both Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 542 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024

MVFR to localized IFR conditions will continue through 13z at KMSL
due to light fog. Otherwise, a mostly clear sky and light winds
will promote VFR conditions through the period at each terminal.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...AMP
SHORT TERM....AMP
LONG TERM....AMP
AVIATION...AMP.24