Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
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042 FXUS63 KICT 290904 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 404 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Periodic rain chances possible from this afternoon through the beginning of next week. Strong storms are possible, but widespread severe weather is not expected - The most widespread storm chances appear to be Thursday through early Friday. - Near to slightly below average temperatures through the rest of the week, then a gradual warming trend starts this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 400 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024 Synopsis... A rather complicated and low confidence forecast will be the main headline through the beginning of next week. A number of ripples embedded in mid/upper level flow in the midst of cool mid-level temperatures (contributing to little to no CIN) and a number of surface boundaries/areas of confluence will present at least periodic low rain chances from this afternoon through potentially the beginning of next week. While CAMs and global models have been anything but consistent and in agreement, it does appear that Thursday will be the best chance for widespread rainfall. As much of the region continues to battle drought conditions, should this play out as currently forecast, it would be extremely beneficial. However, we`ve been here before this year, and unfortunately, the lack of confidence in the forecast doesn`t make this a guarantee. Today... Water vapor satellite and upper level analysis show a somewhat messy pattern this morning with a mid/upper wave diving southeast across southern plains and weak upper ridging quickly progressing eastward across the central plains. Looking towards the western CONUS, the first of a number of upper shortwave troughs can be seen over the Desert Southwest, and this feature will likely be important to the development of widespread convection across the High Plains this afternoon and evening. Meanwhile, across eastern Kansas, essentially no inhibition will be in place across the area thanks to cool mid-level temperatures. A number of short term models suggest an area of weak surface convergence will trigger at least some isolated storms along and northeast of a McPherson-El Dorado-Coffeyville line this afternoon and evening. The current forecast currently keeps PoPs at or below 30% given that this apparent feature that will supposedly be in place this afternoon really isn`t being observed at this time, so it`s entirely possible we have no storms in the forecast area this afternoon. Still, should some storms develop, weak flow will generally keep storms from achieving severe criteria; however, pea sized hail and gusty winds cannot be ruled out with stronger storms. Model soundings also shows a rather moist profile which will promote heavy and efficient rainfall with any storm that may develop (again... IF one develops). Very late tonight into early Thursday morning, dying storms off of the high plains may enter portions of central and south-central Kansas, but not much will make it past the I-135 corridor given the lack of instability. Thursday... There has been a bit more consistency in signaling that Thursday has the best chances for widespread storm chances, but there are a couple of wrinkles that could impact storm chances across the area. Let`s break it down. A more evident and sharp upper wave will creep across the region which will likely help to fire storms off of the High Plains early in the afternoon, and storms will have ample instability to work with in order to sustain themselves through the late afternoon, evening, and nighttime hours as they progress south and east. However, a couple of things may occur that could throw a wrench in this outcome. The first is the potential for early storm development in the forecast as a result of a remnant MCV leftover from storms in the High Plains this evening. This wouldn`t be detrimental to rain chances, but it would potentially create an earlier start time for more widespread activity. The other wrench in the forecast is the potential for a more organized MCS to sweep across portions of southwest Kansas and western Oklahoma early Thursday morning as convection across the High Plains is sustained by a potent LLJ. This could potentially hamper instability across the forecast area, and would lead to a decrease in coverage of thunderstorms, and thus a decrease in number of locations that receive meaningful rainfall. Unfortunately, we really won`t have a clear picture about how Thursday plays until we have a better idea of how storms moving off the High Plains behave tonight. Friday through the beginning of next week... Left over activity may continue to fester across the area Friday morning, and additional development may be possible in the afternoon as the aforementioned shortwave continue to linger over the area (could classify is more as a weak mid/upper low as opposed to a shortwave embedded in weak flow). Storm chances should wane from west to east late Friday afternoon into Friday evening. Thereafter, the forecast gets even more fuzzy as global models are generally having a difficult time remaining consistent. However, currently, low periodic rain chances remain in the forecast from Saturday into the beginning of next week. Although, widespread rainfall does not appear likely. One aspect of the forecast that we can say with a bit more certainty is that a warming trend is anticipated beginning this weekend. Afternoon temperatures are expected to return to the mid to upper 80s, which is around average for this time of year. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1243 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024 Aviation concerns are expected to remain on the low side. Showers and storms are coming to an end across western KS with a remnant MCV possible today across OK. Surface high will shift east today into the Mid and Upper Mississippi Valley which will keep southerly low level flow and moisture in place. Currently not going with any showers or storms in the TAFs, but it`s not out of the question we may see a few storms late this afternoon as we remain uncapped with increasing instability. Just not sure there will be enough surface convergence to get storms to develop. So will leave out of TAFs for now. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JC AVIATION...RBL