Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
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293 FXUS63 KICT 180403 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 1103 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - A few storms are possible across southeast KS this afternoon - Isolated storms possible Saturday afternoon/evening across central into northeast KS - Severe storms are possible Sunday through Tuesday && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 245 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024 As of 245 PM Friday afternoon, weak midlevel flow was present across the Plains. Similar to a mid-summer pattern, peak heating generated pulse convection is expected across far southeast KS where the deepest moisture resides. DCAPE up to 1000 J/kg may support gusty winds with any downdraft. As we transition into the evening, convection will diminish in coverage with mostly clear skies overnight. Transition into Saturday, a weak surface trough will slide into central and northeast KS by mid-afternoon. Little, if any, temperature gradient is expected to reside along the boundary. The modest wind shift along the front may create sufficient convergence for the development of a few storms Saturday afternoon. Similar to today, midlevel flow will remain weak and pulse convection will be the primary mode. Temperatures will be quite summer-like with highs in the 80s to near 90. This frontal zone will lift back north Saturday night as a western CONUS shortwave trough approaches the Plains. A few storms are possible late Saturday night into Sunday morning on the nose of the LLJ across northern KS/southern NE. Any storm should remain north of I-70 and likely north of our forecast area. By Sunday, the midlevel flow is forecast to increase as a dryline sharpens across west-central KS. Strong surface heating and convergence along the dryline and a weak shortwave trough passage should erode a moderate capping inversion and allow for isolated development by late afternoon. Long, veering hodographs will support supercell structures. Any supercell will be capable of golf ball size hail, damaging winds up to 70 mph, and a tornado or 2. It`s uncertain whether sufficient development will occur for cold pool mergers and eventual upscale growth into line segments Sunday evening/Sunday night. The potential for severe storms will continue into Monday with a triple point emerging across west-central KS once again. A more vigorous midlevel speed max will overspread the dryline by late afternoon, inducing storm development. Again, long, veering hodographs will support supercells capable of all hazards. The main shortwave trough will eject across the Plains Tuesday, shunting the surface trough axis across the state. Another round of severe storms appears possible across far eastern KS by Tuesday afternoon/evening. An active midlevel pattern looks to continue through next week with broad southwesterly midlevel flow persisting across the Plains. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1048 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024 Aviation concerns are still expected to remain on the low side. Still looking for a very weak cold font/wind shift to move through on Sat, with latest model guidance slowing it down some and not pushing it as far south. Confidence on storms developing along it also remains low so will leave mention out for now. Looking for winds to flip around to the north at KRSL-KGBD in the 17-19z range and KHUT around 22z. There is a chance the front may not make it down to KICT. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BMB AVIATION...RBL