Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
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867 FXUS63 KICT 262007 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 307 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Quiet and mild weather for today and Monday - Chances for showers and thunderstorms Tuesday and Wednesday && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 306 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 The remains of the frontal system is moving through far Southeastern Kansas this afternoon which will kick off a few showers and thunderstorms. This activity could be locally strong as the environment is still conducive to stronger activity. This will push off to the east in the next few hours. Later tonight and overnight, a post frontal trough is moving through the CWA which is bringing in some drier air behind. Additionally, further north in Central and Northeast Kansas, this trough is providing enough forcing to allow for some scattered showers to develop. This trough may produce some shower activity this evening as well but this is expected to be isolated. This activity is not expected to become severe. This activity is expected to move off to the east during the overnight. This will allow high pressure and subsidence will dominate the region for Monday. This will allow for a nice Memorial Day. Monday night and into Tuesday, a weak mid level system will be pushing into the region from the south increasing the chances for showers and thunderstorms. This activity is not expected to be strong or severe as the mid and upper level dynamics are not conducive to it. Temperatures during this time will remain near normal or a little above. Wednesday and into next weekend, the forecast becomes muddy. Multiple ensembles are indicating another round of shower and thunderstorm activity. Confidence remains rather low at this time, especially on timing and intensity. Current thinking indicates that Friday and Saturday could be fairly active. Strong to severe thunderstorms chances appear rather low (20% or less) but can`t be ruled out based on the indicated shear profiles. Rain chances in general appear rather good for this time frame, just can`t nail down the exact timing at this point. The temperatures during this time area also in question and could be a decent amount cooler than currently forecast if there are more clouds than expected. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1209 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 VFR conditions and light winds are expected for this TAF period. There may be some VFR CIGs in the region for the first few hours of the TAF period, primarily in the KICT and KCNU areas. This is expected to clear by 00Z tonight. Winds will remain light and from the north but have some brief gusts through the mid to late afternoon. By sunset, winds are expected to become variable for most of the remaining TAF period. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...ELM AVIATION...ELM