Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
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900 FXUS63 KICT 230525 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 1225 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - A few severe storms possible for Thursday afternoon, more favorable late Thursday night - A Higher-end severe weather setup is possible for Saturday afternoon/night && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 301 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Models hinting at an elevated convection signal late tonight/early Thursday morning mainly across south central Nebraska/north central Kansas. Some of this activity could spread into central Kansas with a few strong storms capable of producing small hail. Current satellite water vapor imagery shows a healthy looking upper level system over the northwestern states of Oregon/Washington. This system will track eastward across the Rockies tonight and reach western sections of South Dakota/Nebraska panhandle late tomorrow afternoon. There is another upper level wave over far southern California and this system looks to track northeast reaching Oklahoma during the afternoon tomorrow. Very rich Gulf of Mexico moisture(surface dewpoints upper 60s/low 70s) is currently residing near the Red River region of southern Oklahoma/northern Texas. This moisture will begin advecting northward into Kansas during the day tomorrow in response to the approaching upper level waves. CAM models are trying to develop convection along the dry line tomorrow afternoon across central/south central Kansas. Given decent cap aloft and no strong upper wave approaching Kansas(could also have some low cloud problems) lower confidence if storms can develop, therefore would expect if anything can develop it would be more isolated to widely scattered. If storms do develop in the afternoon the environment is supportive of severe weather. Meanwhile confidence is higher for storms impacting the area late Thursday night, as a cold front races southeast across the region. Strong low level moisture transport/low level jet will help feed the convection with more numerous storms developing along the frontal boundary as it track southeast across Nebraska/Kansas. A forward propagating MCS is likely and could affect parts of central/eastern Kansas with damaging winds. The activity should shift east of the region Friday morning as surface high pressure builds over Kansas during the day. Models are advertising that ingredients could come together for a higher-end severe weather setup to materialize for Saturday. The combination of a healthy upper level wave moving into western Kansas Saturday afternoon with a surging dry-line, anomalously stronger than normal upper jetstream predicted by ensemble models and having a more westerly component(pronounced orthogonal shear vector orientation across the dry line boundary). This supports potential robust supercell development especially with modeled high instability and hodograph shapes showing decent curvature down low with longer length in the mid-upper levels which would favor longer-lived supercells. The supercells would be capable of producing very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes. The key will be watching how these ingredient trends are maintained and timing of the upper level wave by the models over the next few days. The upper level system begins to shift east of the area on Sunday with some possible lingering showers/storms during the morning hours. Otherwise models show a northwest flow regime aloft setting up across the central plains for Sunday night through mid week. This would keep the weather pattern generally quiet as better moisture will likely remain south of the region. A few models show possible elevated convection signal for Monday night, however confidence is low this far out in time. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1225 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Low level moisture return within south to southeasterly flow is expected to promote MVFR cigs toward dawn and thru Thursday morning across southern Kansas. Elevated showers may also develop in the late morning to early afternoon across central Kansas in the warm/moist advection regime. Otherwise, gusty southerly winds will prevail thru the afternoon and early evening. There will be a conditional chance for showers and storms late in the day across central Kansas and south central Kansas. KED && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...CDJ AVIATION...KED