477
FXUS63 KICT 271905
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
205 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Periodic shower/thunderstorm chances across the region from
  late tonight through at least early next week, with the
  highest chances Thursday-Friday.

- While isolated occurrences of severe weather are possible,
  the potential for widespread organized severe weather appears
  low.

- Mostly seasonable temperatures expected the next several days,
  although Thursday and Friday look seasonably cool. Seasonably
  warm temperatures possible by late weekend into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 152 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024

As the previous forecaster noted, the next 7 days will feature a
more summer-like pattern thunderstorm-wise, with weaker forcing and
flow aloft, amidst increasing moisture/instability. Consequently,
predictability will be relatively low on exactly where/when the
highest thunderstorm chances will form, as convectively-induced
disturbances and boundaries will be the primary drivers.

LATER TONIGHT--TUESDAY...Increasing deep warm advection and moisture
transport should support scattered showers/thunderstorms across
central, south-central, and southeast Kansas. Model soundings
indicate activity could be rooted fairly high (~700mb) so available
instability should generally be less than 500-800 J/kg. Still,
effective deep layer shear around 40 kts may support dime size hail
with the strongest activity.

TUESDAY EVENING--WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Thinking thunderstorm chances
will be concentrated primarily west-southwest of the region over the
High Plains Tuesday evening-night, as shortwave energy approaches
from the west amidst moderate instability. Held onto 20-30 PoPs over
central and south-central Kansas to account for activity getting
further east, although we are not expecting severe weather this far
east given weak instability. Shortwave energy and/or a convectively
induced disturbance over the region could support additional hit-or-
miss thunderstorm activity across the forecast area Wednesday-
Wednesday evening.

THURSDAY--FRIDAY...Thinking thunderstorm chances have a greater
potential of being more concentrated/widespread, as an upper trough
and an associated surface trough traverse the region, amidst
increasing moisture/instability. While mid-upper flow and associated
deep layer shear are only modest at best, moderate to perhaps strong
instability should support at least an isolated severe thunderstorm
threat, along with pockets of heavy rainfall and localized flooding.

SATURDAY--TUESDAY...Additional subtle ripples in the zonal upper
flow amidst continued rich moisture and strong instability should
support continued hit-or-miss thunderstorm chances over the weekend.
The latest deterministic runs of the GFS and ECMWF indicate potent
shortwave energy and an associated frontal zone traversing Mid-
America Monday-Tuesday, which could spark additional thunderstorm
chances. However, this is still a long ways out, with high
uncertainty.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024

Fairly quiet VFR conditions are expected through late tonight.
By later tonight and persisting through at least Tuesday
morning, increasing deep warm advection should support
increasing scattered showers/thunderstorms. Unsure on exactly
where this activity will focus, so included PROB30 -TSRA at all
sites. Limited instability in concert with adequate deep layer
shear could support pea-dime size hail with the strongest
activity.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADK
AVIATION...ADK