486
FXUS63 KICT 020531
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1231 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated showers and storms this afternoon/evening, especially
  across central and south-central KS

- Better chances for showers/storms tonight, especially along and
  west of Interstate 135

- Several showers/storm chances continue into next week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 247 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

As of 230 PM, another complex weather pattern is emerging across the
Plains with multiple focal points for storm development. The first
focal point extends along a differential mixing boundary from near
McPherson to near Hays. Latest visible satellite reveals a deepening
cumulus field along the boundary with some agitation near Hays.
Forecast soundings along the boundary are quite favorable for severe
storms with considerable veering throughout the profile yielding
near 40 kt of effective shear. Therefore the strongest storms would
be capable of golfball size hail and damaging winds up to 60 mph.
Given the veering low-level wind profile, a tornado cannot be ruled,
especially in the immediate vicinity of the boundary. As diurnal
cooling ensues this evening, this zone of convection should
dissipate.

Our attention then turns westward once again to the second focal
point for storm development. A weak trough axis across far western
KS/eastern CO should allow for development shortly. Cold pool
mergers are probable through the evening with an eventual upscale
growth. Similar to this morning, it seems probable any MCS may
deviate southeastward into northern OK where the better low-level
theta-e resides. An additional complex may develop across western OK
and progress southeastward into portions of central KS. Again, the
overall lack of large scale ascent doesn`t lend to great confidence
in convective evolution. All of that to say, any organized MCS
overnight will be capable of damaging winds up to 65 mph.

A very similar setup is expected late Sunday into Sunday night with
convection developing across the higher terrain and progressing east
and southeast into Monday morning. Any organized MCS will be capable
of damaging winds up to 65 mph once again.

The active pattern will continue through at least Tuesday with weak
perturbations translating across the Plains atop a weakly to
moderately unstable environment. Confidence continues to increase
for the active pattern continuing into next weekend with the
potential for an amplified midlevel ridge axis sliding into the
Plains decreasing. This result would keep shower/storm chances going
and temperatures in the 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1227 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

VFR is anticipated through much of the period, but any isolated
or widely scattered storms may result in reduced flight
categories briefly. We could see a cluster of storms around
sunrise in central KS but confidence in development remains low
with no mention planned in our central KS TAFs. Otherwise,
breezy southerly winds are expected to develop across the area
on Sunday with some gusts exceeding 25 knots at times.
Confidence in hit or miss storms on Sunday afternoon and evening
remain low.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BMB
AVIATION...MWM