907
FXUS63 KICT 281718
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1218 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Periodic rain chances possible from this morning through the
beginning of next week. Strong storms are possible, but widespread
severe weather is not expected

- Near to slightly below average temperatures through the rest
  of the week, then a gradual warming trend starts this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 346 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024

This morning... Subtle WAA at 700 mb is helping to trigger some
elevated showers within an area of meager instability (less than 500
J/kg) across portions of northwest Kansas. These showers should
gradually intensify this morning as instability slightly improves,
and some widely scattered storms are possible along and west of the
Flint Hills. A couple of these storms could produce half-inch hail,
but widespread strong to severe storms are not expected given the
less than ideal environment. This activity should gradually come to
an end by early afternoon. Given the isolated to widely scattered
spatial coverage, widespread rainfall is not expected. By this
afternoon, most locations should dry out, and temperatures will
generally top out around 80.

This Afternoon-Next Monday... A weak upper shortwave trough
will skate over the High Plains late this afternoon, and with
moderate instability, a complex of storms is expected to develop
across eastern Colorado/western Kansas and quickly move
eastward this evening into tonight. The lack of instability east
of US 281 will limit the eastward extent of these storms, but
left over showers remain possible late tonight west of I-135.
Wednesday will likely remain dry for much of the day, and storm
chances really don`t return until Thursday morning as a more
defined shortwave trough approaches the region. Multiple round
of storms are possible Thursday and Thursday night, and global
deterministic and ensemble models suggest Thursday has the best
chance of widespread rainfall this week. Thursday morning`s
storms will likely be a result of mid-level WAA and moisture
transport, and this activity will move north and east by late
morning/early afternoon. As a result of clearing out Thursday
afternoon, moderate instability should be in place across much
of forecast area. Storms are forecast develop across the High
Plains early in the afternoon and progress eastward into the
favorable airmass late Thursday evening/Thursday night. Weak shear
appears to be the main limiting factor for more organized
severe storms, but storms will likely at least produce small
hail and gusty winds as they move into the forecast area from
the west. Rain chances should come to an end from west to east
late Thursday night into Friday morning.

Additional embedded waves in northwest to zonal flow will help
to keep low rain chances in the forecast for Friday through next
Monday. Temperature-wise, warmer conditions are expected this
weekend towards the beginning of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1218 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024

VFR conditions are expected for all terminals throughout the period.
Elevated showers and storms will remain to be the primary aviation
concerns through the afternoon as a baroclinic zone sits over
central KS. Confidence in the timing and location of these storms is
low considering the stationary nature of this zone, so AMDs will be
issued as needed. Chances for showers and storms will decrease
through the evening.

Light winds are anticipated overnight. The early morning could see
the return of a few elevated showers and storms similar to today,
but neglected to mention these since confidence in the timing and
location remains low at this time.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JC
AVIATION...JK/CDJ