Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
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907 FXUS63 KICT 281718 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 1218 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Periodic rain chances possible from this morning through the beginning of next week. Strong storms are possible, but widespread severe weather is not expected - Near to slightly below average temperatures through the rest of the week, then a gradual warming trend starts this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 346 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024 This morning... Subtle WAA at 700 mb is helping to trigger some elevated showers within an area of meager instability (less than 500 J/kg) across portions of northwest Kansas. These showers should gradually intensify this morning as instability slightly improves, and some widely scattered storms are possible along and west of the Flint Hills. A couple of these storms could produce half-inch hail, but widespread strong to severe storms are not expected given the less than ideal environment. This activity should gradually come to an end by early afternoon. Given the isolated to widely scattered spatial coverage, widespread rainfall is not expected. By this afternoon, most locations should dry out, and temperatures will generally top out around 80. This Afternoon-Next Monday... A weak upper shortwave trough will skate over the High Plains late this afternoon, and with moderate instability, a complex of storms is expected to develop across eastern Colorado/western Kansas and quickly move eastward this evening into tonight. The lack of instability east of US 281 will limit the eastward extent of these storms, but left over showers remain possible late tonight west of I-135. Wednesday will likely remain dry for much of the day, and storm chances really don`t return until Thursday morning as a more defined shortwave trough approaches the region. Multiple round of storms are possible Thursday and Thursday night, and global deterministic and ensemble models suggest Thursday has the best chance of widespread rainfall this week. Thursday morning`s storms will likely be a result of mid-level WAA and moisture transport, and this activity will move north and east by late morning/early afternoon. As a result of clearing out Thursday afternoon, moderate instability should be in place across much of forecast area. Storms are forecast develop across the High Plains early in the afternoon and progress eastward into the favorable airmass late Thursday evening/Thursday night. Weak shear appears to be the main limiting factor for more organized severe storms, but storms will likely at least produce small hail and gusty winds as they move into the forecast area from the west. Rain chances should come to an end from west to east late Thursday night into Friday morning. Additional embedded waves in northwest to zonal flow will help to keep low rain chances in the forecast for Friday through next Monday. Temperature-wise, warmer conditions are expected this weekend towards the beginning of next week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1218 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 VFR conditions are expected for all terminals throughout the period. Elevated showers and storms will remain to be the primary aviation concerns through the afternoon as a baroclinic zone sits over central KS. Confidence in the timing and location of these storms is low considering the stationary nature of this zone, so AMDs will be issued as needed. Chances for showers and storms will decrease through the evening. Light winds are anticipated overnight. The early morning could see the return of a few elevated showers and storms similar to today, but neglected to mention these since confidence in the timing and location remains low at this time. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JC AVIATION...JK/CDJ