Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
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686 FXUS63 KICT 251045 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 545 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Low storm chances across far southeast Kansas on Friday. - Mild to warm conditions expected through the beginning of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 327 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 The upper trough that passed over the central plains yesterday is now over the mid-Mississippi River Valley and is beginning to cutoff from the main upper flow. Meanwhile, a fairly robust and amplified upper ridge has stalled over the western CONUS. The latter feature is looking like it`s going to win out in terms of influencing the area`s weather through the remainder of the week and this weekend. Let`s dive in. Drier air, along with a surface ridge, will stall across the region today will lead to generally warmer conditions today with highs in the upper 70s and low 80s this afternoon. Similar conditions are expected on Thursday as the upper ridge attempts to nudge partially over the central plains promoting warmer conditions across most locations. Meanwhile, much further east, Hurricane Helene will likely be making landfall along the Florida Panhandle and begin interacting with the upper low that will still be over the Mississippi River Valley. This interaction may push the upper low a tad westward, and perturbations within the mid/upper flow on the western side of this system may allow for some unsettled weather on Friday across far southeast Kansas. However, it should be noted that almost all global models have trended eastward with shower and thunderstorm activity, so it`s not out of the question that all of the moisture could stay entirely in Missouri on Friday. Going into the weekend, the upper low should weaken and move eastward once again which will allow the strong upper ridge to slide eastward and dominate across the region from Saturday through the beginning of next week. As a result, afternoon highs will solidly be in the 80s, and low 90s cannot be ruled out Monday afternoon across far southern Kansas. Another frontal boundary is expected to enter the region on Tuesday, and more fall-like weather appears more favorable by the first of October. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 543 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Quiet VFR conditions will prevail across the region the next 24 hours. Light northwest winds will gradually become north- northeasterly by midday, and increase up to 8-10 kts or so. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JC AVIATION...ADK