777
FXUS62 KILM 011858
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
258 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Quiet and slightly cooler weather continues through the
weekend. Temperatures and humidity are on the rise next week,
with daily shower and thunderstorm chances gradually returning.
A cold front may move through the area by late in the work week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Highly amplified ridge axis now over the area while weak high
pressure resides at the surface. The ridge will remain
progressive in nature through Sunday pushed off or weakened by
weak shortwaves from the west. The overall forecast remains
consistent as the airmass modifies from both a temperature and
dewpoint standpoint along with increasing intervals of mid level
clouds. Some guidance wants to develop a few showers late
Sunday afternoon mainly western areas but this seems a stretch
at this point. Temperatures will tack on about five degrees or
so from todays values. Lows in the lower 60s with highs in the
middle 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Return flow in full swing around offshore high pressure for the
start of the week. This will warm temps to seasonable for the
short term, with lows in the mid to upper 60s and highs Monday
in the mid to upper 80s. A weak mid-upper ridge in place Monday,
but there will still be enough moisture and forcing with the
sea breeze to produce widely scattered afternoon storms.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Slightly above normal temperatures Tuesday through Thursday
with continued WAA and slowly increasing dewpoints. Despite
lingering weak ridge aloft Tuesday into early Wednesday, still
expecting diurnal convection along sea breeze and Piedmont
trough both days. Warmth and moisture peak on Thursday providing
plenty of instability, with some upper level support combining
with local boundaries to produce scattered storms. Current
forecast has heat indices Thursday approaching triple digits. A
front is forecasted to move across sometime Friday, associated
with a stacked low over the northern Great Lakes, with a drying
trend possible heading into next weekend behind the front.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR expected through the period. There was a touch of ground
fog this morning and the drift downward of dewpoint depressions
overnight warrants a slight uptick in concern. However ample mid
level cloud cover should keep any threat limited and transitory
at worst.

Extended Outlook...Isolated mainly afternoon and evening
thunderstorms will be possible Monday through Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Sunday...Quiet as can be across the waters through
Sunday. The weak return/southeast flow of 10-12 knots at best
will continue essentially unimpeded. Significant seas will
represent the winds well hovering around 2 feet.

Sunday Night through Thursday...Southerly flow at 5-10 kts,
with afternoon gusts around 15 kts, continues around offshore
high pressure Sunday night through Wednesday. Seas around 2 feet
from SE swell and S wind chop. South-southwest winds pick up on
Thursday as a front approaches, with sustained speeds
increasing to 15-20 kts. Seas in turn build to 3-4 ft late
Thursday as the southerly component increases. Chances for late
night/early morning storms over the waters increase through mid
week, with thunderstorm chances all day Thursday.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...VAO
LONG TERM...VAO
AVIATION...SHK
MARINE...SHK/VAO