Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
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001 FXUS62 KILM 220608 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 208 AM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Dry forecast continues for the remainder of the weekend, with high pressure dominating. Temperatures linger near or just above seasonal norms through early next week. Next appreciable rain chances look to return by the middle of next week with the next frontal system. && .UPDATE... For the overnight, impulse aloft dropping SE, continuing to fire up showers and isolated tstorms. Majority of it will stay N thru NE of the FA but will maintain low chance (isolated) across the northern portions of the Southeast NC CWA. Also increased the mid and high level cloud coverage across mainly Southeast NC based on latest sat imagery trends and HRRR hi-res model data. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Weak high pressure will continue to be in place through the forecast period under the northwest flow aloft. A weak shortwave may bring a few clouds and very isolated showers late tonight and again Sunday afternoon. Lows tonight will once again be in the middle 60s with highs Sunday a touch warmer than today in the middle 80s. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Mainly dry weather expected this period. In fact, forecast may end up being completely dry with an upr-level ridge axis moving into the area. For now, decided to include some slight chance PoPs inland based on latest guidance and increasing deep-layer moisture late Monday. Temps remain seasonable...highs in the low/mid 80s Mon with lows Sun night and Mon night 65-70. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Low confidence forecast continues throughout the long term period. Initial complication is an upr-level trough moving through the Upper Midwest and its evolution as a closed low breaks off over the central CONUS. This low will eventually interact with a possible tropical cyclone (NHC has 60% chance of formation) moving into the Gulf of Mexico. Locally, cannot rule out the chance of rain any of the days this period, but the best chances will be during the latter half of the period when the better forcing approaches the area. Temps remain close to climatological norms. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR to dominate this 24 hr issuance period. A mid-level shortwave trough will work its way SSE and off the NC Coast during today. Could see a few showers reach LBT and possibly ILM during the pre-dawn to early daylight hrs Sun. Cloud decks generally occurring in the mid and upper levels except for possible daytime Cu. Weak sfc high and a relaxed sfc pg to yield wind speeds 10 kt or less during daylight and 5 kt or less night time. Should see an active sea breeze at the coastal terminals. Extended Outlook...Mainly dry and VFR until midweek when a cold front approaches. Expect daily early morning MVFR/IFR from fog/stratus. && .MARINE... Through Sunday...Pressure gradient remains weak for the coastal waters through Sunday. The persistent northeast flow seen over the past several days will turn more east to southeast. Significant seas will remain low 2-3 feet. Sunday Night through Thursday...Sub-SCA conditions prevail. E/NE flow continues early this period with sfc high pressure off to the NE. Then as the high moves offshore and potential low pressure moves into the Gulf of Mexico, onshore flow and seas will start to slowly ramp up closer to 6 ft, but at this point this looks to be moreso Friday than Thursday. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Coastal flooding remains a threat through the weekend into early next week with high astronomical tides and a modest northeast flow. The beaches seem secure for minor coastal flooding requiring an advisory. However, criteria along the lower Cape Fear River from Wilmington south may reach Moderate Coastal flood thresholds requiring a Coastal Flood Warning. Upstream waters working their way down the Cape Fear River will also influence the flooding on both sides of the Cape Fear River including Brunswick County. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 AM EDT early this morning for NCZ107-109. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM UPDATE...DCH NEAR TERM...SHK SHORT TERM...MAS LONG TERM...MAS AVIATION...DCH MARINE...MAS/SHK TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...