818
FXUS62 KILM 301901
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
301 PM EDT Thu May 30 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry high pressure will build into the weekend, lows dipping
below seasonable behind a cold front. High pressure pushes
offshore next week, bringing a gradual warming trend and a
return of daily shower and thunderstorm chances.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Highly amplified pattern will continue through Friday
with another surge of cool and dry air pushing in early Friday
morning. Lows tonight will be in the middle to upper 50s and highs
Friday...very similar to today`s values in the lower 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Quiet short term period with high pressure building behind a dry
cold front. Fri night lows will be about 5-10 degrees below normal
but still a decent 10 deg above record lows. Clear skies and calm
winds will allow us to radiate out as well, so mixed in some cooler
guidance for the lows overall while also dropping temps in our
colder spots by a couple degrees. Lows away from the coast are in
the low to mid 50s with colder spots near 50 while the coast will be
more near 60. The center of the high will move offshore late Sat
with moisture and temps beginning to recover in its return flow.
With the switch to onshore flow and a slight increase in cloud cover
overnight, lows Sat night should recover but the extent will be hard
to pinpoint. Went on the cooler side of guidance for now as winds
are still expected to be light so there shouldn`t be too much mixing
with lows near 60. Low precip chances and increased cloud cover Sun
due to a passing shortwave aloft and recovering moisture behind the
high, primarily inland. Highs in the low to mid 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The center of the high will move further offshore to our south with
us sitting in its return flow. Diurnal shower and storm chances are
expected every day with warming temperatures. Temps will be above
seasonable norms through next week with highs near 90 and lows in
the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions will continue through the period. A slight
secondary surge very late tonight from the north is worth noting
in the official TAFs but outside of this nothing of
significance.

Extended Outlook...VFR through Sun. Isolated convection Mon could
result in brief MVFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Friday...Very modest northeast to east flow in place
(trending a bit downward) and will continue for most of the
afternoon and overnight period. A secondary surge of cool air/higher
winds will move across early Friday morning increasing winds only
slightly. Overall speeds in a 5-15 knot range with the higher values
moreso Friday. Significant seas will be 2-4 feet early on dropping
to near 2 feet Friday.

Friday Night through Tuesday...Benign marine conditions under high
pressure, the center of which will move offshore late Sat. Light E
flow veers to the SW late Sat into Sun morning, speeds generally 10-
15 kts. Seas 2-3 ft.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...LEW
LONG TERM...LEW
AVIATION...SHK
MARINE...SHK/LEW