153
FXUS62 KILM 281948
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
348 PM EDT Tue May 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Shower and storm chances decrease tonight as the front pushes
offshore. Mostly dry and relatively cooler conditions expected
through the end of the week with building high pressure.
Unsettled weather return towards early next week as the high
moves offshore.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Frontal boundary still appears to be nearly bisecting the area from
NW to SW, partially being halted by the advancing seabreeze. Other
than the strong/severe cell near Myrtle Grove/CB storms have been
hesitant to develop. Most CAMs still show radar fill in across the
Cape Fear and to a lesser extent the Grand Strand and based upon the
strong instability and low LCL`s this seems plausible. This
instability will wane quickly this evening and storm coverage and
intensity will do the same, likely gone close to dark. The post-
frontal dry advection will keep us from fogging up tonight but
the lack of any real CAA will not curb the heat much tomorrow.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Conditions expected to remain mostly dry through the period. A
trough aloft will align itself with the east coast with a dry cold
front moving through. A shortwave travels along the trough overnight
Thurs into early Fri with a deepening of offshore low pressure
followed by the quick lifting of the trough to the NE as ridging
starts to build in from the west. The majority of stronger forcing
looks to stay to our north, and the dry air in place also doesn`t
look conducive for much precip during this time. Guidance could come
into further agreement, but for now best chances look to be for SE
NC if at all. Due to the small chances, refrained from increasing
POPs over land at this time. Highs slightly cooler but still in the
80s with lows near 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Ridging continues to build in for the early weekend with high
pressure setting up at the surface. The center of the high looks to
push offshore Sun with increasing precip chances due to disturbances
aloft. Daytime instability could mix some diurnal storms in as well.
Coolest conditions at the start of the period with lows Fri night
possibly in the 50s before warming through the weekend. Highs in the
80s with lows in the 60s onwards.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR save for some thunderstorms this afternoon that will favor
the coast, and likely the NC coast moreso than SC. ILM will thus
be the best coverage and based upon instability parameters have
called for strong and variable winds that will require fuel
alternates from 19-23Z. Thereafter instability will wane and
storms should dissipate. The immediate forecast will also have
rather light and variable wind as a front and seabreeze mesh. By
daybreak all terminals go NW behind the front and the post-
frontal dry advection should preclude fog development.

Extended Outlook...VFR through Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Wednesday...  Pretty quiet on the marine front with a
boundary stalled just inland to keep the gradient light and the
winds capped at 10kt. Tonight this boundary pushes through turning
flow to the NW, this trend reversing tomorrow and a SW flow
returning. Spectral wave plots show a dominant period of 6 seconds,
which should remain the case through the period.

Wednesday Night through Sunday... Sub-SCA conditions. Nly winds
10-15 kts become more variable AOB 10 kts Thursday with the
passage of a dry front. Flow becomes NE through Fri with
building high pressure before becoming SE as the center of the
high moves offshore at the end of the period. Seas 2-3 ft.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...MBB
SHORT TERM...LEW
LONG TERM...LEW
AVIATION...MBB
MARINE...MBB/LEW