328
FXUS62 KILM 260121
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
921 PM EDT Sat May 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Unseasonably hot and humid conditions are expected to continue
through Monday with scattered mainly afternoon and evening
thunderstorms continuing. An approaching cold front should
enhance thunderstorm coverage late Monday into Monday night.
Cooling trend and mostly dry weather expected Tuesday through
late week as front stalls near the coast before high pressure
builds in from the west Thursday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Convection for the most part winding down this evening, but kept
high chance/likely PoPs over a couple areas where thunderstorms
remain. Trend towards decreasing coverage will continue over the
next few hours, followed by some patchy fog, especially inland,
overnight over areas that received rain today. Low temps tonight
in the upr 60s to around 70.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Our 500 mb heights will rise by almost 40 meters over the next
24 hours as the subtropical ridge centered across the Gulf of
Mexico expands northeastward. Despite warming and drying
observed aloft in model progs, unseasonably warm and humid air
at and below 850 mb should still create an unstable and uncapped
airmass Sunday afternoon. As much as I want to forecast a dry
day, I`m still putting 20-30 percent chances of afternoon
thunderstorms in the forecast for Sunday. Forecast highs range
from the mid 80s on the beaches to lower 90s inland with heat
indices reaching the upper 90s in spots.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A band of weakening storms are forecasted to move across the
area from the west early Sunday night before clearing out. Low
temps in the low 70s with lingering boundary layer winds. Warm
and humid Memorial Day in store as WAA strengthens ahead of an
approaching front. High temps in the low 90s with dewpoints near
70F (much like Sunday). Main uncertainty is chances of daytime
showers and thunderstorms. Looks like there may be a window for
convection around midday, primarily along sea breeze, before a
dry slot looks to move across and a mid-level subsidence
inversion develops around 18-21z. PWATs pick up again and
inversion dissipates heading into Monday evening as the front
moves across the western Carolinas. Best chance for storms
Monday look to be Monday evening into overnight hours. Given
timing, not sure how much overlap will be left between
instability ahead of front and elevated shear along front.
Something to keep an eye on over the next two days.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Front expected to be near/along the coast Tuesday morning,
where it will stall for a day or two before being pushed
offshore as high pressure begins to build across the central US
midweek. Quite a bit of dry air inland beginning Tuesday - have
kept daytime pops Tuesday limited to slight chance near the
coast, and if trends continue even those pops may be removed.
While upper trough lingers over the northeastern US through
Friday, at the surface a cool, dry high pressure centered over
the Great Lakes ridges down into the Carolinas Thursday and
Friday. Upper level pattern remains a bit uncertain heading into
next weekend - regardless atmosphere looks to be quite dry for
a bit. A brief cooling trend in store after an above normal
Tuesday, before slowly warming heading into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue this evening, but
coverage will continue to slowly decrease as time goes on.
Mainly VFR conditions as of 23Z, with MVFR/IFR possible over the
next few hours should a storm pass over a TAF site. Otherwise,
VFR continues until patchy fog develops early Sunday morning,
especially inland, but confidence is not particularly high on
this so kept it MVFR for now and will further fine-tune in the
next TAF issuance. Sunday similar to today with fairly light
winds but rain chances are slightly lower (only 20-30%) so kept
any mention of rain out of the TAFs this far out.

Extended Outlook...Scattered mainly afternoon and evening
thunderstorms may be accompanied by periodic short lived IFR
conditions Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Sunday...Low pressure over the central Plains and high
pressure well off the East Coast are providing the Carolinas
with a light southwest synoptic wind around 5 knots. Afternoon
seabreeze tomorrow will accelerate winds near the beach as high
as 10-15 knots.

Outside of thunderstorms, seas should average only 1-2 feet in
height through Sunday, split between a 9 second southeast swell plus
local wind waves.

Sunday Night through Thursday...South-southwest winds around 10
kts Sunday night will be increasing during the day Monday as a
front approaches from the west. Winds peak around 20 kts with
gusts up to 25 kts late Monday afternoon/evening. In turn seas
increase from 2-3 ft Sunday night to around 4 feet Monday
evening with the building south wind wave. Chance for
thunderstorms over the waters Monday night ahead of an along the
front. Front expected to stall near the coast Monday night into
Tuesday morning, and linger there through Wednesday before
being pushed further off the coast as high pressure begins to
build inland. Winds generally around 10 kts or less Tuesday and
Wednesday, alternating between southwesterly and northwesterly,
with seas around 2-3 ft. Winds turn northerly on Thursday with
the building high pressure inland.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 AM EDT Sunday for NCZ107.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...MAS
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...VAO
LONG TERM...VAO
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...TRA/VAO