870
FXUS62 KILM 041759
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
159 PM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Southerly winds will bring warmer and more humid air northward,
resulting in isolated to scattered mainly afternoon and evening
showers and thunderstorms through at least Thursday. A cold
front could reach the Carolinas on Friday, bringing a mainly
rain-free weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Early morning visible satellite imagery showed a bit of
altocumulus castellanus along the I-95 corridor, indicative of
the instability present above the LCL as mentioned in the near-
term discussion below. In the absence of any other strong
forcing, this does support the going forecast of 20-30% PoPs,
which should focus on the sea breeze front as well as the
Piedmont trough.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Warm and humid today underneath weak ridging aloft. Instability
just above the LCL could generate a few showers or
thunderstorms along the sea breeze early this afternoon. Rain
chances will gradually shift inland through the afternoon with
the sea breeze and warmer temperatures inland. Coverage will
remain isolated due to weak instability and dry air aloft.
Little relief overnight with lows in upper 60s to near 70 along
the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Wednesday and Thursday still look to be the two wettest days of
the week. Not expecting a washout or rain the entire day, but
mid-level shortwave energy is more pronounced than previous
days, and in conjunction with daily sea breezes will lead to
scattered to numerous diurnal showers and thunderstorms,
especially inland. Temps will also slowly rise through the week,
reaching the low 90s Thursday with heat indices in the mid/upr
90s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Drier weather overall this period. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms possible Friday before a cold front crosses the
area late in the day, followed by dry conditions over the
weekend as weak sfc high pressure builds in from the west along
with zonal flow aloft. Temps still slightly above normal for
early June - highs in the upr 80s/lwr 90s. Rain chances return
Monday as a broad upr-level low takes shape over the eastern
CONUS and lobes of vorticity swing around it.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Return flow around surface high pressure offshore will result in
southwesterly flow, with a sea breeze/resultant boundary along
the coast backing winds at the coastal terminals towards the
south. There is a chance for an isolated shower or thunderstorm
this afternoon, which would start along the sea breeze where
cumulus is most enhanced. This boundary has already moved inland
of KCRE/KMYR, but will be in the vicinity of KILM for the next
couple of hours. Anything that does fire up should die off after
sunset, leaving light/vrb winds. Southwest flow will pick up
again Wednesday, with a slightly better chance of a shower or
tstm as weak shortwave energy moves in from the west.

Extended Outlook...Showers/thunderstorms will be a little more
widespread Thursday ahead of a front. VFR expected Friday and
Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight...High pressure offshore will maintain southerly
winds today and tonight. Seas around 2 feet. A few showers or
storms are possible in the offshore NC waters this evening as a
cold front north of the area stalls. S winds will increase near
the sea breeze with gusts up to 20 knots possible.

Wednesday through Saturday...No headlines anticipated. Sfc high
pressure remains well offshore Wednesday and Thursday leading
to southerly flow over the coastal waters, up to 15-20 kt
Thursday as the pressure gradient tightens slightly ahead of an
approaching cold front. The front crosses the area late Friday,
but with weak CAA following the front winds should be no more
than 10-15 kt into Saturday. Seas 2-4 ft through the period,
which includes a steady 1-2 ft 7-8 second SE swell component.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...CRM
NEAR TERM...21
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...CRM
MARINE...MAS/21