333
FXUS62 KILM 271801
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
201 PM EDT Mon May 27 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
An approaching cold front will enhance thunderstorms through
this evening. Mostly dry weather is expected to commence from
Tuesday onward as the front pushes offshore after stalling
through mid-week. Relatively cool and dry high pressure should
remain in control going into this upcoming weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Break in convection with a mix of some cu and higher clouds
moving from inland to coast through late aftn. Still expecting
best chc of stronger convection to cross the area from west to
east into this evening. Models now show best coverage of
could be across the Pee Dee and SC between 8 to 9p through midnight,
but showers could linger overnight.

Aviation discussion updated below for 18Z TAFs.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Will have an outflow boundary, and a sea breeze by midday
today. Combined with instability increasing, expect the 2
boundaries to be a source of forcing with the end result
convection outbreak. A cold front accompanied with a pre-
frontal trof will approach from the WNW today, pushing across
the FA to just off the mainland by daybreak Tue. Convection will
be ongoing with these approaching boundaries, likely reaching
the western periphery of the CWA by early to mid aftn. SPC
continues to outline the entire ILM CWA in DAY1 SLGT (2 of 5)
risk for today with damaging wind gusts and hail primary
threats. Embedded mid-level southern stream low amplitude s/w
trof will also antagonize the convection, keeping the SVR threat
ongoing well into tonight. Another 90+ degree day for highs,
except 4 to 8 degrees cooler at the beaches. Sfc dewpoints will
likely reach widespread 70s except if any mixing from aloft is
realized, a few western portions of the ILM CWA may temporarily
drop into the 60s. Tonights lows will run in the 70s possibly a
few 60s occurring from rain-cooled air.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
The cold front should be stalling out near the coast during the
Tuesday morning hours with mainly dry conditions across the
area, except for possibly a few showers grazing the coastal
zones. Some uncertainty remains regarding how much
redevelopment might be seen along the sea breeze during the
afternoon as a mid-level dry slot is expected to arrive with
much drier air and subsidence during peak heating. The Cape
Fear region is favored for any new development, but PoPs have
been capped at slight chance due to the increasingly unfavorable
conditions. Otherwise, expect decreasing clouds and downslope
flow out of the west to yield highs around 90F.

Whatever development happens to occur during the afternoon
should quickly dissipate with the loss of daytime heating during
the evening. In addition, the passage of a mid-level shortwave
and weak height falls should help to push the cold front further
offshore with light NW winds and a breath of drier air arriving
over Tuesday night. This will support lows in the mid-60s inland
and upper 60s near the coast.

On Wednesday, meager cold advection will help to shave a few
degrees off of daytime highs, with mid-upper 80s forecast
despite sunny skies. The bigger difference will be felt in the
lower humidity, with dewpoints expected to mix down into the
mid-50s during the afternoon as very dry air and subsidence
aloft dominate.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Yet another mid-level shortwave should bring subtle height falls
over Wednesday night, with a dry cold front expected to pass
through as a result. This will turn winds to northerly or NNW
with another breath of dry air filtering in. Morning lows in the
low-mid 60s are expected.

One final and particularly potent shortwave is expected to dive
southward from around Lake Huron on Thursday morning to North
Carolina on Friday morning. Guidance differences persist in the
shape and orientation of this wave, which will have an impact
on the forecast for Thursday and Friday. At this point,
I maintained continuity with a dry and relatively cool forecast
for both days. However, the GFS continues to suggest that
clouds and light rain may be a concern on Thursday amid weak
isentropic upglide on the 300-305 K surfaces, but other model
guidance fails to acknowledge this possibility. The differences
persist into Friday as the GFS brings a more east-west oriented
shortwave down from the north while other guidance shows a
positively-tilted wave only grazing our area. The former would
bring additional rain chances on Friday while the latter keeps
things dry. Similar to the previous forecast, kept silent PoPs
in for now with highs around 80F on both days and overnight lows
in the mid-upper 50s.

Beyond the end-of-week uncertainty, a mid-level ridge is slated
to move in while surface high pressure drops from the Great
Lakes region on Thursday to the coastal Carolinas by early
Sunday. This should make for a dry weekend with sunny skies and
slightly-below-seasonable highs.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SW winds 10 to 15 kts will remain gusty out of the S-SW up to
20 to 25 kts into this evening with tightened gradient ahead of
an approaching cold front. Wind direction inland will be
slightly more westerly and at the coastal terminals, more
S-SSW due to the sea breeze through late this aftn. Convection
upstream will approach and move across the terminals into this
evening. Looks like strongest convection should cross the area
from west to east between 00z and 05z with some lingering shwrs
into early Tues. Have included prevailing VCTS with a 4 hr Tempo
group to highlight the better timing of the thunderstorm
activity. Winds will diminish a bit and slowly veer to the W-SW
during the pre-dawn hrs on Tues and could see some lower clouds
or showers with front moving toward the coast after 14-15z.
Front may get hung up close to the coast as sea breeze develops
into Tues aftn with enhanced convergence with westerly flow
behind front and potential for an iso thunderstorm or two. Overall,
drier air should begin to makes its way in from the W-NW.

Extended Outlook...Mainly dry conditions and VFR thereafter for
the remainder of the work-week.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight...Tightening sfc pg well ahead of a sfc cold
front approaching from the west will result in SW winds
increasing this aftn, except S-SSW near shore due to the sea
breeze. Speeds will increase to 15 to 20 kt with few/occasional
gusts around 25 kt. Once the pre-frontal sfc trof pushes thru
later Tue evening, winds will veer to the WSW-W at reduced
speeds especially during the pre-dawn Tue hrs. The cold front
will be nearly overhead come daybreak Tue. Seas will build to 2
to 4 ft, with occasional 5 footers possible especially outer
waters. Unfortunately, seas will be governed by the low period
locally produced waves. V-hull as opposed to a flat bottom
boat is preferred today, especially venturing out into the ATl
Waters and possibly even the ICW.

Tuesday through Friday...
A couple of cold fronts will make for changeable wind
directions through the period. The first front should be
stalling right near the coast at the start of the period with SW
winds over the waters and seas subsiding into the 2-3 ft range,
mainly driven by southerly wind waves. SW winds continue until
the first front is shoved offshore on Tuesday night, with NW
winds taking over early Wednesday morning. Seas fall to around 2
ft on Wednesday with a mix of 1-2 ft southerly swell and ESErly
swell both with periods of 6-7 seconds while winds back to SW
again as the first front washes out. Winds veer to NNW behind a
second front pushing through over Wednesday night and the flow
then becomes variable as high pressure builds down from the
northwest. A low chance exists for low pressure to affect the
waters on Thursday and Friday with showers and stronger winds,
but confidence is too low to include in the forecast at this
time.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
SW to SSW winds to increase to around 15 mph with occasional
gusts over 20 mph as the tightening sfc pg and sea breeze
combine. This will develop a strong south to north longshore
current, affecting all beaches except Brunswick County
(Moderate rip current threat) where a moderate west to east
longshore current will occur.

The lower Cape Fear River(Wilmington southward) will likely
eclipse (barely) 1 more minor coastal flood threshold (5.5 ft
MLLW) during late tonights high tide cycle.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106-
     108.
SC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054-
     056.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ABW
UPDATE...RGZ
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...ABW
LONG TERM...ABW
AVIATION...RGZ
MARINE...DCH/ABW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...