595
FXUS62 KILM 191055
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
655 AM EDT Sun May 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A storm system will bring unsettled weather and cooler temperatures
today. Drier air will then move into the area to start off the work
week. Warmer temperatures will return mid week with wetter weather
expected late week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Very light showers continue along the slow moving boundary
sagging southward. Low stratus has settled in across majority of
the area (still approaching coastal NE SC). 12z aviation
discussion below.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Low level convergence along a stalled boundary is maintaining
scattered shallow showers across the Pee Dee region and into
southeast NC. Training has been minimal thus far, with only
localized area of 1+ inches in the last couple hours over Dillon
county. The boundary will continue to sag southward, and with it the
"line" of showers. A positively tilted 500mb trough across the East
Coast, with base currently moving across northern GA, will shift
eastward during the day leading to PVA across SC and some NVA for
NC. Focus for rain chances will shift to southern parts of our area
(Williamsburg and Georgetown counties in particular) from late
morning into the afternoon with isolated thunder possible.

Behind the southward moving boundary, CAA in northerly flow is
leading to widespread low stratus, which have already moved into our
northern counties. This stratus in a pseudo-wedge pattern with high
pressure to the north will persist for most of today maintaining
overcast conditions until at least mid-afternoon. Thus high temps
today are well below normal in the low 70s. There is a chance for a
warmer than expected temps, mainly inland and northern areas, if the
widespread stratus breaks apart sooner than expected and allows mid-
May sunshine through in the afternoon. Mostly clear conditions for
tonight (outside of potential for low clouds moving into Cape Fear
late tonight) with continued CAA dropping low temps into upper 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Highlights:
*No significant weather expected

Confidence:
*Moderate to High

Details: Dry high pressure ridging into the area from the north
and northeast will prevail. Below normal temps Monday/Monday
night should get back closer to normal Tuesday/Tuesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Highlights:
*Low severe storm/flood risk possible starting Friday

Confidence:
*Moderate to High through Thursday night
*Moderate Friday through Sunday

Details: Expect a warming trend into Thursday with surface high
pressure offshore and mid-level high pressure building from the
southwest. Should remain dry through at least Wednesday night with
only a slight chance of inland showers/storms Thursday as moisture
and shortwaves arrive from the west. Rain chances could increase a
bit more Thursday night and especially starting Friday as
moisture/forcing increase further. However, details of the best rain
chances/amounts are elusive at this point as much depends on the
timing of the best upper forcing. Although the threat looks pretty
low for now, we should start to see at least a low risk for a few
stronger storms and/or flooding beginning Friday as
instability/shear increase.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Widespread low stratus has settled in across the area, with
ceilings around 300-600 feet. Still VFR at coastal NE SC
terminals, but low ceilings will reach there over the next hour
or two as a boundary continues southward. Ceilings will
gradually lift throughout the day, widespread IFR around 14z and
low-end MVFR around 18z. Will begin seeing breaks in the stratus
during the afternoon, with VFR forecasted inland around 21-23z
and coastal terminals 1-3z. Mostly clear skies after that for
tonight, with low chance for another stratus deck to reach
northern parts of our area by Monday morning.

Best chance for rain and isolated thunder will be across
southern parts of the forecast area late morning into the
afternoon. Steady northeast winds today into tonight.

Extended Outlook...VFR during the day on Monday. VFR should
otherwise prevail with early morning vis or cig restrictions
possible each day through the end of the period.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight...As a boundary shifts south this morning and high
pressure ridges down from the north, northeast flow will develop
across the local coastal waters by late this morning. Sustained
winds 10-15 kts this afternoon will increase a bit into tonight in
response to tightening pressure gradient, with gusts around 20 kts
this evening and tonight. Seas around 2 ft this morning will
increase to 2-4 ft by late afternoon, and 3-4 ft tonight, as NE wind
wave builds and dominates the wave spectrum. Shower and thunderstorm
chances will be mostly confined to coastal waters south of Cape Fear
late this morning through the afternoon.

Monday through Friday...High pressure to the north/northeast will
shift farther east mid to late week causing northerly winds to shift
to more easterly Tuesday, southeasterly Wednesday and then southerly
Wednesday night. No significant concerns expected.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Due to an upcoming full moon on Thursday, chances for minor coastal
flooding will increase through the week. Minor coastal flooding
along the Lower Cape Fear River at Downtown Wilmington is forecasted
for this evening, and will remain likely with each evening high tide
for most of the week. Coastal flooding at the local beaches will be
possible mid-week.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...VAO
NEAR TERM...VAO
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...VAO
MARINE...RJB/VAO
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...