172
FXUS62 KILM 231351
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
951 AM EDT Thu May 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain off the SE coast today. Shower and
thunderstorm chances will grow as a series of upper level
disturbances move across the region Friday through Saturday,
while a front stalls just north of the area. Inland
temperatures will rise into the lower 90s by Sunday, then cool
back towards normal by Wednesday behind a cold front.

&&

.UPDATE...
Sunny skies across the eastern Carolinas are allowing
temperatures to jump quickly this morning. Cirrus observed
across AL/GA and the southern Appalachians is moving eastward
and will reach the area later today, joined by some daytime
cumulus inland of the seabreeze front. The going forecast looks
good and only minor tweaks to temperatures and winds were made
based on the HRRR`s seabreeze timing.

A warm air cap between 6k-10kft aloft should inhibit deep
convection through the day, but the erosion of this cap tonight
should allow inland showers and storms to make it down this
way. Look at falling 700 mb temperatures from almost any model
to see this process occur with the approach of a shortwave from
the west.


&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Bermuda High lingers off the coast today and tonight while the
pattern aloft transitions from weak shortwave ridge to more
progressive flow. A couple weak shortwaves move across the area
today, but these don`t appear strong enough to overcome lingering
mid-level subsidence depicted in forecast soundings. A slightly
stronger shortwave moving east-northeast along the NC/SC border will
have the best chance at firing off convection this evening. It
arrives while there is still some surface based instability in the
area and the mid-level subsidence is weakening. Not sure much if any
convection will extend south into SC, but the I-95 corridor could
see some isolated to scattered convection with this shortwave late
in the day. Any storms will translate east overnight. Strength and
coverage will decrease as storms move into a less favorable
environment. Temperatures above climo continue today and tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Although there are discrepancies in the details, models continue to
signal increasing potential for showers/tstms during the day Friday
with arrival of weak shortwave energy aloft. A second round of
shortwave energy arrives Friday night and lingers across the area
into Saturday. Again, there are differences in model depictions, but
potential for scattered showers/tstms will persist through Saturday.
Convection should trend down Saturday night as the trough moves
offshore, and mid-level ridge builds across the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Models continue to trend towards a drier day Sunday with
increasing subsidence associated with mid-level ridging. However
can`t rule out convective potential altogether, given the
relative low amplitude of the ridge aloft, along with continued
strong surface-based instability as temperatures max out 89-92
away from the beaches. Embedded ripples in westerly flow aloft
will promote scattered convection Monday into Tuesday ahead of a
500 mb trough, which will sweep across the mid MS River Valley
and lift to the Great Lakes by midweek. The associated surface
front will cross the area Tuesday night, minimizing rain chances
Wednesday, and bringing temps back down toward seasonable norms.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR will dominate today before convection moving in from the
west late in the day becomes a concern. Currently appears NC
terminals have the best chance, but cannot rule out storms
affecting at least some of the SC terminals. Storms may linger
into the early morning hours before gradually dissipating as
the move east. IFR from low clouds and fog will be a concern in
the pre-dawn hours of Friday, especially if evening convection
does develop.

Extended Outlook...Morning low clouds/fog Friday morning.
Afternoon showers/storms through at least Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
Bermuda High will maintain southwest flow across the waters today
and tonight. Some diurnal enhancement of the pressure gradient is
likely with heating, which will lead to a bump in wind speeds in the
afternoon and evening. Solid 15 kt is possible closer to shore late
in the day, before speeds drop back around 10 kt overnight. Seas
will be 2 ft or less today and tonight, with highest seas found in
the evening. A southerly wind wave around 4 seconds will be dominant
with a weak easterly swell also present.

Friday night through Monday...SW flow will persist for the most
part through the period, as high pressure off the coast remains
the prominent synoptic driver. Scattered convection will be
possible, particularly Saturday evening, which could result in a
temporary wind shift to the NW. SW flow will increase in
magnitude Monday as low pressure spins across the Great Lakes,
tightening the gradient across the coastal waters.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TRA
UPDATE...TRA
NEAR TERM...III
SHORT TERM...CRM
LONG TERM...CRM
AVIATION...III
MARINE...III/CRM