533
FXUS61 KILN 280254
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1054 PM EDT Mon May 27 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move east tonight. Some upper level
disturbances will keep precipitation chances in the forecast
through Wednesday. High pressure and dry conditions are then
expected Thursday through the first part of Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Broad mid level trof over the Upper MS Valley and the Great
Lakes. Shortwave and surface reflected trof has pivoted
southeast of ILN/s area. Weak convection that developed has
dissipated and band of stratocumulus clouds across the north is
decreasing in coverage. Next embedded shortwave to drop
southeast across the southern Great Lakes overnight into
Tuesday. Clouds and scattered showers will move back into West
Central Ohio overnight.

Temperatures to drop to lows in the mid and upper 50s.
West to southwest winds will persist at less than 10 mph
overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
Additional short wave energy will be arriving Tuesday through
Tuesday night on a westerly mid level flow. Model soundings
indicate steepening lapse rates by afternoon as surface heating
comes in phase with cooler air aloft. A few showers and
thunderstorms will be possible mainly along and north of I-70.
Coverage is expected to increase Tuesday afternoon, with
convection possibly continuing through Tuesday night under
additional short wave support. Gusty winds will be possible,
though severe storms are not likely from an environment
containing less than ~500 J/KG CAPE.

Temperatures are forecast to be slightly below normal, with
highs in the low and mid 70s, and lows in the low to mid 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Only notable divergence in the forecast from what was populated from
NBM is the removal of thunder from Wednesday and Sunday/Sunday
night. Wednesday will be the coolest day in the 7 day forecast with
cold air advection aloft overturning the atmosphere with a weakening
H5 trough and accompanying vort maxima. The cold air in the lower
levels will be the onus for showers, and while an isolated stronger
cell will have upper support for charge separation, thunder is not
the likely weather type. For an hour or so in the late day it`s more
possible but having thunder in the forecast across the CWA and for
the entire time pops are present seems heavy handed.

Lowered Saturday morning pops as the eastern extent of incoming
precip looked to remain west of CWA through early afternoon.

Day 7-8 Sunday also had removed thunder. Too much uncertainty as to
if precip will occur, potential timing if it does and the overall
pattern that could be unfavorable for deep convection had me leave
thunder out at this afternoon`s forecast issuance.

The coolest air on Wednesday with highs in the upper 60s to low 70s
will see a slight bump on Thursday and be 2-3 degrees on either side
of 70. High pressure on Friday coupled with a building ridge and
increased heights aloft, and ample sunshine will mark the beginning
of a warming period. Highs will be in the low to mid 70s, but then
ramp up to the upper 70s Saturday with return southerly flow, near
80 across the board on Sunday, and low 80s Monday.

Overnight lows in the upper 40s Wednesday night will drop a bit more
Thursday night with more readings in the mid 40s than upper 40s. The
morning lows Friday mark the bottom of the temperature forecast with
a warming through the end of the forecast, following the trend of
highs during this time. Low 50s Friday night will warm to near 60
Saturday night and low 60s Sunday night.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A band of strato cumulus clouds have developed in the wake of
surface cold front this afternoon. The best coverage of clouds
is across the northern TAF sites. These clouds will scatter out
early this evening with VFR conditions overnight.

Mid level shortwave will result in scattered showers into ILN/s
northern counties late tonight into Tuesday morning. As we
head into Tuesday afternoon coverage of showers and
thunderstorms will increase especially across the north.
At this time have allowed for an increase in VFR clouds but have
omitted any mention of pcpn at the TAF sites.

West winds gusting over 20 knots will subside this evening
before increasing again on Tuesday when gusts of 20 to 25 kts
will be likely.

OUTLOOK...MVFR conditions possible Tuesday night.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Coniglio
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...Coniglio
LONG TERM...Franks
AVIATION...AR