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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
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279 FXUS61 KILN 221842 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 242 PM EDT Wed May 22 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Episodic showers and thunderstorms are expected through the end of the work week and weekend. Temperatures are expected to trend above normal through the weekend before a stronger system impacts the Ohio Valley Sunday into Monday, which will reduce temperatures to near normal at the beginning of the next work week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... A relative minimum in convection is expected through the bulk of the afternoon hours. CAMs continue to be fairly meager with any initiation during peak heating hours when CAPE and lapse rates (particularly in the lower levels) will be more conducive for strong/severe storm potential. Thus, while the afternoon period will still have to be monitored for any CI, it does not appear favorable. If any storms do happen to materialize, the primary threats would be localized downbursts and large hail - wind shear is not strong/favorable enough to warrant a tornado concern. There is a better signal in CAMs for convection during the evening and overnight period, with slightly better forcing. Minor improvement to wind shear values expected as well, which could lead to a better window of severe potential mainly during the late evening and early overnight period. However, this potential will likely still be limited given the lack of strong, dynamic forcing. Additionally, the cold front that tries to work through our CWA becomes pretty washed out and thus doesn`t provide the best surface mechanism for organized convection. Storm activity will begin to wane around the middle of the night, mainly around 12AM - 2AM. A few light showers may linger a bit longer, particularly in portions of central OH down through northern KY. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... A slight cooldown is forecast on Thursday, but temperatures still trend slightly above seasonal normals. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will be lower on Thursday, but still linger given the stalled, weak frontal boundary laying across our CWA. Locations north of I-70 have the best chance to remain dry all day, and will also experience slightly lower temps and dewpoints. Elsewhere, isolated to scattered storm develop still possible throughout the day, particularly in the afternoon and evening when we are near peak diurnal heating. Boundary continues to lift north as a warm front Thursday night. However, shower/storm coverage will become less extensive Thursday night. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... In westerly flow aloft, a weak mid level short wave will progress east across the Ohio Valley later Friday afternoon into Friday night. Some weak destabilization through the afternoon on Friday will lead to a chance of showers and thunderstorms, with a better chance overspreading the area heading into Friday evening as the short wave moves in. Pcpn chances will then diminish heading into Saturday as we get on the back side of the short wave. Another mid level short wave will lift northeast into the Ohio Valley during the day on Sunday as a stronger secondary short wave/mid level low pivots northeast out of the mid Mississippi Valley and into the Great Lakes Sunday night through Monday. This will allow for an associated surface low to lift northeast from the central Plains on Sunday into the central Great Lakes through the day on Monday. Increasing moisture/forcing ahead of this system will lead to developing showers and thunderstorms Sunday afternoon into Sunday night and continuing into the day on Monday. Given the strengthening wind fields and track of the surface low, some severe storms will be possible, especially later Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. An upper level trough will eventually settle in across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley region through early to mid next week. Additional embedded mid level short waves rotating through the trough will keep some lingering chances for showers and thunderstorms through the remainder of the long term period. Temperatures will remain above normal through the weekend with daytime highs mostly in the upper 70s to lower 80s. A more seasonable airmass will then move into the region through early to mid next week with daytime highs mostly in the lower to mid 70s. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Complex of storms has pushed east of the terminals this afternoon. A lull in pcpn/storm activity is expected through the remainder of the afternoon and perhaps into the early evening. There will be a fair amount of cu around still, primarily VFR. Brief periods of MVFR CIGs are possible this afternoon however, but this should be pretty limited. Expect breezy conditions with sustained winds of 10-15 kts and gusts of 20-25 kts, mainly through the early evening. Chances for storms will increase late this evening, closer to 00z for all terminals. Only put in a VCTS mention for now until confidence increases on storm coverage across these terminals. Shower/storm activity will continue into the middle of the night before waning and shifting eastward. A weak frontal boundary will begin to slide through. Winds will weaken and become variable around 5 kts with this washed out boundary. Guidance does hint at potential MVFR CIGs developing Thursday morning. Better chances and coverage expected for KCVG/KLUK and perhaps KILN. Confidence is lower on northern terminals, so will have to see how things trend. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible at times through Sunday. MVFR ceilings possible early Thursday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Clark NEAR TERM...Clark SHORT TERM...Clark LONG TERM...JGL AVIATION...Clark