142
FXUS61 KILN 171915
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
315 PM EDT Fri May 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
After showers that remain possible through tonight and isolated
activity indicated briefly Saturday afternoon, a dry forecast is
in store through Tuesday night. With this dry period,
temperatures will increase relatively quickly and end up 10
degrees or slightly more from climatological normals on Tuesday
and overnight.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Primarily stratiform rain to the southeast of I-71  will
continue to move south-southeast this afternoon. Northwestern
CWA from Delaware to Kenton and then southwestward to Richmond
and Indianapolis will keep a threat of shower activity this
late day and evening, potentially lingering past midnight. This
is firing along a weak boundary and could contain thunder in
stronger storms. Overnight showers that linger will be due to a surface
inverted trough nosing into northwest Ohio from northern IN
Coupled with scattered pockets of strong upward motion noted at
H7. Southern CWA will maintain a rain/shower threat as well,
but should be lacking the necessary ingredients for putting
thunder in the forecast.

Upstream in IN and IL, a good bit of fog was noted this morning.
In the wake of today`s weather, a significantly moist lower
atmosphere, and light winds, areas of fog were noted across the
CWA for a few hours before and a little after daybreak.

Overnight lows will drop to around 60 degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Some few indications of widely scattered/isolated showers are
apparent for Saturday. If this is the case, earlier development
should be in southern forecast area, Afternoon heating will
prompt what showers that may occur later in the day, at any
location in the CWA, ending quickly with the setting sun.

Highs will warm fairly uniformly to around 80, and lows will be
again within a degree or so on either side of 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Dry and warm conditions will start out the long term Sunday
into Monday with high temperatures in the 80s. A little better
instability develops on Tuesday and therefore there will be the
potential for some pop up afternoon thunderstorms. These will
diminish with the loss of daytime heating. A brief lull in the
precipitation is expected before a cold front approaches and
moves through Wednesday into Thursday. There is still some
uncertainty with timing and strength of this system, however
cannot rule out the potential for some severe weather Wednesday
into Wednesday night. Cooler air will move into the region after
the passage of the front on Thursday. There is quite a bit of
model variability on Friday with either a cool dry solution or
with moisture being drawn up into the area from the south. Due
to this limited any precipitation chances to the chance category
for Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Rainfall activity over the region and terminals has
significantly decreased and continues this trend regarding the
lingering rain from this morning, primarily in the south.
However, scattered shower activity is noted to occur in the
northwest half of the CWA and central Ohio and could last for a
while into the evening. Closer to and north of the Ohio River,
isolated showers have a lower probability of occurring in the
evening according to most model guidance. Was not confident
 this would affect CVG/LUK enough to indicate as VCSH so
forecast is precip-free for now. Potential development later
today will be addressed with amendments, likely when storms
begin to develop and have a trackable movement.

While a stronger signal for afternoon activity lasting into the
evening and possibly a little while after midnight is found in
the northwestern CWA, placement and extent of activity will be
difficult to nail down. Current showers have begun to form along
a boundary noted extending from Hardin and northern Delaware
County, southwestward to western Indianapolis. Indications are
lacking that this line might move south enough to affect DAY
and/or CMH/LCK tonight.

Until and unless showers or isolated thunderstorms have a chance
to affect a terminal, conditions through the evening will be
VFR with some scattered cu underneath a fairly extensive AS
deck.

After midnight, the moist boundary layer and light winds will
likely see fog develop area-wide. Have accounted for this and
relied heavily on MOS guidance for which category cigs/vsbys
would stand a better chance of dropping to. Upstream of us
earlier this morning was noted an expansive field of LIFR fog.
Any terminal may drop to LIFR between about 09Z and 13Z, with
the better chances noted for DAY and CVG/LUK. Kept ILN and
CMH/LCK mixed with VFR MVFR and IFR during this time.

Fog should lift and mix out in favor of partly cloudy skies on
Saturday.

OUTLOOK...No significant weather is expected.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Franks
NEAR TERM...Franks
SHORT TERM...Franks
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...Franks