337
FXUS61 KILN 231843
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
243 PM EDT Thu May 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Episodic showers and thunderstorms are expected through the end
of the work week and into the weekend. Temperatures are
expected to remain above normal through the weekend before a
stronger system impacts the Ohio Valley Sunday into Monday,
which will reduce temperatures to near normal at the beginning
of the next work week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
A stalled frontal boundary is currently draped across the
southern portions of our CWA. While fairly weak, it will help
provide a source of lift for a relatively warm/humid, unstable
air mass. Temperatures will not climb quite as high today, but
upper 70s to near 80 degrees will be observed.

CAMs suggest storm coverage may increase later this afternoon
into the evening hours. This is likely in response to a subtle
shortwave that ripples through southern portions of our CWA.
Overall, solutions are quite different amongst hi-res models
given the weak forcing in place, so will have to see how this
environment responds to this source of energy. PoPs will be
highest for southern OH and northern KY, but isolated
shower/storm development will still become possible for areas
further north towards the I-70 corridor. Not anticipating
severe, but a few strong storms certainly possible with gusty
winds and small hail.

Shower/storm activity will gradually wane overnight. As this
activity wanes, we will start to see some fog development given
the saturated low levels and nearly calm surface winds. River
valley fog will be most noticeable, but some overland fog also
expected, especially across northern KY and portions of southern
OH, particularly in the lower Scioto Valley.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Stalled boundary across our CWA will begin to lift north as a
warm front on Friday. As ILN gets placed more in the warm
sector, surface temperatures and dewpoints will increase by a
few degrees compared to Thursday. Given the northward
progression of the boundary, the forecast is now trending drier
through most of the daylight hours Friday given the lack of a
forcing mechanism.

While daytime conditions are favored to remain dry, models are
displaying a shortwave feature rippling through the Upper
Midwest later in the day Friday. This feature will spawn a MCS
across the Upper Midwest region. This shortwave will propagate
through the Great Lakes region Friday night, allowing for the
MCS to progress eastward. CAMs are still a few hours off in
terms of the potential timing of this complex to reach our CWA.
An earlier arrival as suggested by the HRRR (closer to 8PM)
could pose more of a potential severe threat, mainly straight-
line winds. Will have to see how this complex progresses during
the daytime to get a feel for any severe storm potential for our
fa. Severe threat could linger into the beginning of Friday
night, but the thought is that these storms will eventually
become elevated, limiting severe potential.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The cold front will push east across our area Saturday morning into
early afternoon. This will lead to a lingering chance for showers
and thunderstorms, especially across our eastern areas. Highs on
Saturday will be in the low to mid 80s.

The front will sag off to our southeast Saturday night before
beginning to lift back to the north as a warm front through the day
on Sunday. This will be ahead of a low pressure system lifting
northeast across the mid Mississippi Valley. There is still some
uncertainty with the timing and how far north the warm front will
make it through the day on Sunday, but good instability will develop
off to our southwest through the day and advect/develop northeast
into our area Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening. This will lead
to a developing chance for showers and thunderstorms Sunday
afternoon with showers and thunderstorms becoming widespread heading
into Sunday night. With impressive wind/shear profiles across our
area and a favorable synoptic setup, Sunday`s severe weather
potential bears watching as all severe weather modes look to be in
play.

A secondary mid level short wave will push east across the Ohio
Valley through the day on Monday, leading to a continued chance for
showers and thunderstorms. An upper level low will then pivot down
across the Great Lakes region through mid week. With some additional
mid level energy rotating around the low, will hang on to some
lingering chances for showers and perhaps a thunderstorm Tuesday
into Wednesday. Cooler temperatures will settle into the area
through mid week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
For today, the cold frontal boundary will become quasi-
stationary across the southern half of the region. An embedded
mid level disturbance will ripple east this morning, bringing a
chance of showers and thunderstorms to far southern locations
(mainly along and south of the Ohio River). For this afternoon,
with daytime heating and the frontal boundary in the vicinity of
the region, along with another weak mid level disturbance, will
bring another chance of showers and thunderstorms. Predominate
conditions will be VFR but lower conditions (MVFR/IFR) could
occur in thunderstorms. Winds will become light southerly.

For tonight, convection in the evening will wane through the
night as mid level disturbance moves off to the east and
instability diminishes. Weak frontal boundary will begin to
slowly move north as a warm front. Models suggest that IFR or
lower conditions may develop, especially across southern
terminals.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible at times through Monday.
MVFR/IFR/LIFR/VLIFR ceilings and visibilities possible Friday
morning.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Clark
NEAR TERM...Clark
SHORT TERM...Clark
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...Clark