Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
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589 FXUS61 KILN 281935 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 335 PM EDT Tue May 28 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Upper level disturbances will allow for off and on rainfall chances through Wednesday. Dry conditions will then arrive with high pressure Thursday through the start of Saturday before a more unsettled weather pattern develops for the remainder of the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... A couple of disturbances will affect the area tonight. The first disturbance causing scattered showers across northern counties will move east this evening, and coupled with loss of daytime heating, showers will diminish for a time. The next short wave arriving later tonight from the northwest is expected to trigger additional showers and possibly a thunderstorm or two. While still affecting mainly northern locations, the showers may also reach farther south to the Ohio River given the stronger and larger nature of the second disturbance. Winds gusting over 20 mph early are forecast to subside overnight. However, HRRR shows stronger gusts occurring briefly with the second batch of showers. By 6 am, cool lows in the low to mid 50s will be observed. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Short wave energy and a surface trough will combine with a moderate amount of moisture to produce showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday. Area most affected will be Central Ohio where we have categorical pops until mid afternoon. Remainder of the area will see lower but nonzero chances for showers and a few thunderstorms. For Wednesday night, showers should diminish rapidly as the disturbance weakens and moves east, coinciding with diurnal reduction of instability. Below normal highs in the upper 60s to low 70s are indicated, followed by cool lows in the mid 40s to low 50s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Surface high pressure will remain over the region Thursday through Friday night. Below average temperatures and dry conditions persist on northerly, then easterly, flow. The surface high begins to shift further to the east on Saturday into Saturday night which will allow for the development of southerly flow. Temperatures and moisture start to increase on the southerly winds. Rain chances also increase on Saturday into Saturday night as an upper level shortwave may progress through the Ohio Valley. Slightly above average temperatures are forecast for the start of next week as the Ohio Valley will likely be in quasi-zonal upper level flow. Periods of showers and storms are likely, although not yet rendered, since the synoptic setup favors shortwaves moving through the upper level flow. && .AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR is being observed to start the TAF period. Scattered showers forming under mid level disturbances and affecting CMH and LCK may spread south to ILN and DAY tonight to Wednesday morning, along with MVFR ceilings. CMH and LCK could see widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms on Wednesday but kept as VCSH for this issuance. CVG and LUK may escape those showers and lower ceilings, though they will be monitored for possible amendments. West to northwest winds gusting over 20 knots this afternoon are forecast to subside tonight before rising to around 10 knots on Wednesday. Will also need to monitor another burst of short wave energy which could cause some brief wind gusts tonight according to the HRRR. OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Coniglio NEAR TERM...Coniglio SHORT TERM...Coniglio LONG TERM...Campbell AVIATION...Coniglio