432
FXUS63 KILX 311757
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1257 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Weak instability associated with a slow-moving low pressure
  system will bring some showers and thunderstorms (80-90% chance)
  through central Illinois overnight tonight into late Saturday.
  Severe weather is not expected.

- After a dry Sunday, there are several more chances for rain are
  in the forecast through late Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 233 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024

Today will be dry and mostly sunny, as a high pressure system
continues to hang out over the Great Lakes region. A slow moving low
pressure system is over TX/OK currently and will gradually make its
way towards Illinois today. This low will bring the next chance of
showers and thunderstorms for overnight tonight (around midnight)
and will linger through late Saturday. Widespread coverage is seen
in the CAMs (NAM 3km, WRF-ARW) as the system moves in, with coverage
becoming more scattered by mid afternoon. Some weak instability
(~500 J/kg MLCAPE) will be in place, which will allow for some
thunderstorms. QPF for this system is low, compared to what we`ve
been seeing, with amounts of 0.5-1 in possible over a 24 hour
period. However, some isolated spots could see closer to 1.5 inches
where a stronger shower passes over. We are not expecting any severe
weather with this wave of precipitation.

Next week won`t be as dry as this previous week as a short wave and
cold front are set to move through. There are multiple rounds of
showers/thunderstorms in the forecast through the extended. Monday
into Tuesday, the showers should be mostly scattered as a weak short
wave passes overhead. Wednesday`s round of showers/t`storms will be
more widespread across central Illinois and will be associated with
a cold frontal passage. Come Thursday, the forecast looks to be dry
for the weekend.

Temperatures will warm back up into the 80s this weekend and will
last well into the new week. Highs won`t cool slightly (mid 70s)
until the cold front passes on Wednesday night/Thursday morning.
Lows will mainly range in the 60s through the 7 day period.

Copple

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1257 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

VFR conditions will continue through this evening. Showers lift
north through the area overnight into Saturday, with a 20-30% chance
of thunderstorms. Ceilings and visibilities look to drop into MVFR
category by 12-15Z with a 40-60% chance for pockets of ceilings
<1000 ft. If this trend continues or probabilities increase, the
addition of IFR ceilings will likely be needed in future TAF
issuances.

NMA

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$