Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois
Issued by NWS Central Illinois
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650 FXUS63 KILX 242334 AFDILX Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Lincoln IL 634 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Stronger showers and thunderstorms to continue into the evening hours. Some storms could become severe with damaging winds, large hail, and an isolated tornado. - Saturday will be dry and warm. Highs in the 70s, clear skies, and dry weather makes for a beautiful Saturday. - There is a 80-100% chance of thunderstorms on Sunday. These storms have the potential to be severe, with an enhanced risk (level 3 of 5) for severe weather that day. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 245 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024 The storms this afternoon continue to have a severe aspect to them, with damaging winds, large hail, and an isolated tornado being possible. They are quite chaotic in motion and where they are initiating. There are multiple boundaries interacting with each other. They are seemingly merging to create a linear formation and will move off to the east towards the Indiana border this evening. There is a flooding risk with these storms as they are moving slower and the axis of higher PWAT values is across the CWA, east of I-55. The severe risk should subside before midnight tonight. Saturday a surface high pressure will set up over the area, providing us a brief breather before the next round of active weather arrives Sunday morning. There is a low pressure system bringing frontal passages through the region on Sunday with a risk of severe weather along with the cold front. A warm front will quickly move north through central Illinois early Sunday morning, placing us in the warm sector. This should allow us to destabilize and break any cap that is in place ahead of the cold front. Highs that day are in the upper 70s to mid 80s, with dewpoints near 70. The GFS is showing about 3000-4000 J/kg of SBCAPE, 40-55 knots effective bulk wind shear, and very steep mid- level lapse rates of ~9 C/km by 18z Sunday. DCAPE is showing around 1000 J/kg on forecast NAM and GFS soundings at that same time. This round of severe weather will have an all hazards risk, damaging winds, large hail, and a tornado or two. Monday (Memorial Day) has a 20-30% of any showers that day but will be mainly dry. However, it will be quite windy. So those on the lake or tent camping should stay aware of any stronger wind gusts that may occur Sunday night into Monday. There is a 50-70% chance of wind gusts 40+ mph overnight. Temperatures look to be in the mid 70s for the holiday. Further passed Monday, highs slowly warm back up but stay in the mid 70s to low 80s through the week. Copple && .AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Saturday Evening) Issued at 634 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024 An approaching cold front and scattered thunderstorms ahead of this feature will affect the central IL terminals until around 03Z, then showers will taper off and end, with skies clearing overnight. Thunderstorms until 03Z may contain MVFR or brief IFR cigs/vsbys, however predominantly VFR conditions are expected. Winds gusty and variable around thunderstorms, locally in excess of 30 kts, but predominant winds will initially be S 10-20 kts, then shift to NW around 10 kts behind the front. High pressure arriving behind the front will eventually produce light and variable winds by around 12Z Saturday. 37 && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$