Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
628 FXUS63 KIND 291328 AFDIND Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 928 AM EDT Wed May 29 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Low chance for showers today, primarily over the eastern half of central IN - Below normal temperatures today and tonight; Highs in the upper 60s to low 70s with overnight temperatures in the mid 40s to low 50s - Dry and Seasonable Wednesday through Friday, Rain chances Saturday into Sunday && .FORECAST UPDATE... Northwest flow near the surface and aloft continues as the upper level low that brought the storms to portions of central Indiana yesterday continues to slowly track to the east. Weak lift within the jet stream associated with this low continues to bring periods of sprinkles and light rain, mainly to the eastern counties with widespread cloud coverage. Little change was made to the forecast other than to expand the sprinkle coverage a bit further west based on latest radar trends. As long as the cloud cover doesn`t break earlier than currently expected, most areas will struggle to reach 70 today which lines up well with the ongoing forecast. Expect that by later this evening any rain will be focused only across the northeastern counties where the moisture is a bit more robust. && .SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)... Issued at 239 AM EDT Wed May 29 2024 Current satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies across all of central IN with widespread clouds over portions of eastern WI, southern MI, and northern IN. There clouds are associated with a mid- level shortwave which is expected to progress towards the area leading to enhanced cloud cover. Look for clouds to increase in coverage between towards daybreak and persist through at least the early afternoon hours. Weak forcing from the disturbance and marginal low-level moisture will support the potential for showers, mainly across the eastern half of central IN from mid-morning to early afternoon. The shortwave is expected to move east by this afternoon with surface high pressure building in which should allow for clouds to gradually begin clearing. With clouds clearing out some, this could be enough to promote a few diurnal showers through the afternoon from daytime heating. Most locations are going to remain dry during the afternoon, but will keep very low rain chances over far east counties. Look for quiet weather conditions tonight as surface high pressure continues to build in. Light winds and clear skies may allow for patchy fog development. Enhanced cloud cover early in the day combined with broad upper troughing and N/NW flow will keep temperatures below normal in the upper 60s to low 70s. Light winds and clear skies may allow for patchy fog development late overnight. Good radiational cooling conditions will result in chilly lows around the mid 40s to low 50s. && .LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)... Issued at 239 AM EDT Wed May 29 2024 Ridging will start building in late Thursday and will bring temperatures up closer to climo (mid-upper 70s) by Friday and Saturday. Narrow moisture return ahead of the next shortwave trough will bring a chance of showers Saturday. The degree of forcing, moisture magnitude, and instability indicate generally light amounts. Multi-model ensemble mean rainfall amounts are around or just above a quarter inch, with only a couple of outliers near an inch. The background larger scale synoptic pattern will feature steadily rising heights and slight positive anomalies by the weekend and early next week, so temperatures will rise to slightly above climo during this period. Uncertainties emerge as ensemble spread grows with handling smaller scale features. One shortwave trough is reasonably well timed among the ensemble suite bringing increased rain chances early next week. It`s difficult at this time range to narrow down specific periods of greater chances. Most of the flow aloft will remain at higher latitudes, so shear is limited and organized severe storm threat appears low at this time. Days 8-14: Multi-model medium range ensemble mean shows a relatively strong signal for the time range of eastern troughing and western ridging. This should keep us below normal on both temperatures and precipitation. && .AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)... Issued at 648 AM EDT Wed May 29 2024 Impacts: - MVFR ceilings expected to persist through midday, mainly near IND/LAF. - Low chance for showers near IND today Discussion: MVFR ceilings are expected to persist through midday, mainly near IND/LAF due to a mid-level disturbance moving across central IN. Clouds are expected to lift and clear out in the afternoon as the impulse departs. BMG may see a few brief hours of MVFR conditions. Isolated showers are possible near IND today. Confidence in exact timing and location of these showers is low so a VCSH group was not included in the TAF. N/NW winds generally around 10 kts or less are expected through this evening. Sporadic gusts up to 20 kts are possible, but should remain infrequent enough to not warrant a TAF mention. Winds then become northeasterly tonight and diminish to around 5 kts or less. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...White SHORT TERM...Melo LONG TERM...BRB AVIATION...Melo