Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN
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889 FXUS63 KIND 300647 AFDIND Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 247 AM EDT Thu May 30 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Very pleasant weather today with plentiful sunshine and highs in the low-mid 70s; Dry conditions persist through Friday - Rain chances Saturday into Sunday - Warming trend this weekend into early next week && .SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)... Issued at 246 AM EDT Thu May 30 2024 Expect another beautiful day ahead with temperatures in the 70s as surface high pressure remains centered over the region. This combined with dewpoints in the 40s will make it feel very comfortable. Current satellite imagery shows little to no cloud cover across Indiana due to strong subsidence. Mostly clear skies should continue through the period, but some diurnal cu will develop this afternoon once convective temperatures in the low-mid 70s are reached. Surface high pressure overhead will keep the pressure gradient very weak resulting in light winds. Quiet conditions persist into tonight with the upper ridging and surface high pressure still centered over the region. Guidance shows the surface high gradually shifting eastward late today into tonight which will allow winds to become more easterly. Expect another cool night in the low 50s under optimal radiational cooling conditions. && .LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)... Issued at 246 AM EDT Thu May 30 2024 During the long term period we`ll trend gradually toward positive midlevel height anomalies as broad low amplitude ridging builds across much of the country. The subtropical jet will diminish and the polar jet will shift northward, signaling that we`re getting deeper into the warm season. Sensible weather changes for us will primarily be the gradual warming that comes along with increased ridging, and occasional precipitation driven by minor shortwave perturbations. These smaller scale features do introduce some chaos in the ensembles with timing and amplitude differences growing by early next week. So it`s difficult for us to narrow down a shorter window of higher precipitation probabilities at this time. Deterministic and ensemble guidance indicate one weak southern stream shortwave trough bringing rain showers to the area later Saturday through early Sunday. Stacked nature of this system, its low-latitude origins, and weakening trend suggest poor midlevel lapse rates and limited instability for thunder. The majority of ensemble members point toward eastern troughing developing and generally dry and below normal precipitation pattern evolving by late in the week and into the Day 8-14 period. && .AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)... Issued at 114 AM EDT Thu May 30 2024 Impacts: - VFR conditions throughout the forecast period Discussion: A broad upper trough over the region continues to shift eastward with upper ridging beginning to build in. This has allowed skies to clear out across central Indiana. Expect winds to remain light through the period as surface high pressure settles in. Wind direction will be northerly trough daybreak and then should veer to northeasterly during the day. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Melo LONG TERM...BRB AVIATION...Melo