273
FXUS63 KIWX 250744
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
344 AM EDT Sat May 25 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Slight chances for rain showers and a few thunderstorms into
 this morning. Highs today climbing into the 70s and low 80s
 inland, and the 60s near Lake Michigan.

- Greater chances for showers and thunderstorms Sunday
  afternoon and night with both severe storms and possibly heavy
  rain/hydro issues existing.

- Lingering showers/embedded thunder may impact activities on
  Memorial Day through Wednesday.

- Moderate Swim Risk for Lake Michigan beaches in La Porte
  County in Indiana and Berrien County in Michigan on Memorial
  Day through Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 256 AM EDT Sat May 25 2024

After a convectively messy evening, only a few
showers/thunderstorms remain over the area as the cold front is
currently pushing into the western parts of the CWA. These
showers with a few rumbles of thunder will remain possible as
the frontal boundary continues to move eastward through the
morning and into the early afternoon for areas east of I-69.
Clearing skies will move into the area on the heels of the
frontal passage and by later this afternoon mostly sunny skies
will be in place along with a break in the activity for this
holiday weekend. Highs today will be in the mid to upper 60s
for areas around Lake Michigan with temperatures a bit warmer
inland with 70s to low 80s.

Another disturbance will move into the Great Lakes region from
the Plains on Sunday and ahead of the circulation another warm
front will move in from the southwest and bring a surge of
moist air into the area with dew points going from the 40s to
the 60s. Slightly warmer temperatures will also move in with
highs on Sunday getting into the upper 70s to lower 80s. Gusty
winds and showers will also accompany the arrival of the warm
frontal boundary as it moves into the area. Surface based CAPES
will again increase to around 1000 to 1200 J/kg and decent mid-
level lapse rates around 7 deg/km will be available by Sunday
afternoon. 0-3km Bulk shear values up to 40 kts will also be
available on Sunday afternoon. As a vigorous cold front moves
into the area on Sunday this will allow thunderstorm activity to
develop. SPC currently has a majority of our CWA in a slight
risk for Sunday. So strong to severe storms will once again be
possible. Wind will again be the main threat but large hail and
a few tornadoes would not be out of the question.

With the trough remaining over the Great Lakes region mostly
cloudy skies, cooler temperatures, and chances for
showers/embedded thunder will remain for Memorial Day into the
mid week. Highs each day through Wednesday will be in the upper
60s to low 70s across the area with the coolest temperatures
near Lake Michigan. By late Wednesday, broad ridging over the
central CONUS will begin to build into the area bringing a
warming trend and mainly dry weather conditions into next
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 148 AM EDT Sat May 25 2024

Predominantly VFR to MVFR conditions expected at the terminal
through the period. There are a few showers lingering around
tonight (especially east of KSBN), with more focused activity
expected with the incoming cold front later this morning into
early afternoon. Have added a mention for additional
showers with VCTS and MVFR ceilings as we do get an area of
steeper mid level lapse rates moving in with the cold front-
which will pass through KSBN between 9-13z/KFWA between 12-16z.
High pressure builds in rapidly behind the exiting cold front
this afternoon into the overnight, shifting winds to the west-
northwest and putting an end to any precipitation chances. Winds
will be light and variable overnight.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Steinwedel
DISCUSSION...Andersen
AVIATION...MCD