Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana
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236 FXUS63 KIWX 260026 AFDIWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 826 PM EDT Wed Sep 25 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... * Isolated showers will continue to diminish this evening. * Rain showers associated with a tropical system enter the forecast late Friday afternoon through the weekend. * Seasonable temperatures are replaced by a temporary dose of fall by the middle of next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 820 PM EDT Wed Sep 25 2024 High pressure across the upper Midwest and inverted sfc trough feature across the Ohio Valley has allowed for broad weak low level boundary in this weak low level deformation flow. Have had a few instances this evening of some funnel cloud development in vicinity of this boundary west of KFWA with RAP analysis depicting weak axis of sfc vorticity. Radar trends have been on the decline over the past hour and continued diminishment of weak low level instability should end isolated shower potential. Some patchy shallow fog is possible overnight, mainly across the far northwest. No major changes made to the forecast at this time. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 220 PM EDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Isolated showers will remain possible near a weak trough axis across northern IN and srn MI this afternoon given sufficient boundary layer moisture and diurnal heating. This trough washes out tonight into tomorrow with drier easterly winds developing on the southern fringe of a low level anticyclone building northeast into the Great Lakes. Clearing and winds becoming light/variable for a time later tonight may allow for some patchy ground fog to develop across mainly nw IN and portions of southern MI. Main focus into Friday and the weekend will turn to Hurricane Helene remnants being absorbed into a leftover upper low over the western TN Valley. Friday likely remains dry with northeast winds becoming breezy in response to the sfc low center pivot north-northwest into Kentucky for a time. A few bands of light rain may clip the area on the northern fringe later Friday into Saturday, best chances south of US 30/24. Seasonable temperatures expected otherwise before a cold front brings a shot of fall-like temps by the middle of next week. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 800 PM EDT Wed Sep 25 2024 An upper level low center across the Mid MS Valley will continue to slowly sag southward into Thursday. This will allow some drier air to initially push into the region tonight into early Thursday. A weak low level boundary and strong sheared vorticity max east of this height minimum is aiding in some isolated shower coverage just west of KFWA, but expecting this isolated shower potential to be very short-lived and diminished shortly after 01Z. At this time expecting focus for any afternoon isolated showers on Thursday to be confined southeast of terminals with better low level moisture residing east of the inverted trough axis across southwest Ohio. Some patchy fog is possible at KSBN given light flow and recent rainfall today, but otherwise unfavorable vertical moisture profiles should limit extent and magnitude of this potential. Light winds tonight will become northeast around 10 knots late Thursday morning. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...None. OH...None. MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ UPDATE...Marsili DISCUSSION...Steinwedel AVIATION...Marsili