Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana
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673 FXUS63 KIWX 311741 AFDIWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 141 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Today; beautiful late-Spring weather with highs in the upper 70s. - Rain arriving Saturday morning, lingering through the night. - Warmer Monday through Wednesday with frequent chances for showers and storms. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 240 AM EDT Fri May 31 2024 High pressure remains in control through Friday night, giving way to a broad area of low pressure crossing the Mississippi River. Today promises to be another beautiful late-Spring day with highs outpacing those of Thursday. High clouds will slip in through the day as the aformentioned low nears. Rain spreads in from southwest to northeast after daybreak Saturday. Therefore, a dry start to the weekend for those in northwest Ohio or south-central Michigan where rain is delayed until very late in the afternoon and evening. Those locations have a shot a reaching the mid-70s as well (especially northwest Ohio) as a warm front attempts to lift north through Lake Erie. The progress of this warm front will impact temperatures greatly. Our current forecast represents the 50th percentile of guidance; though the 15-degree spread in guidance should be noted. Highs will be stuck in the upper-60s for northwest Indiana. As the previous forecaster noted, the chance for thunder is low with very little instability and poor lapse rates. Instead, heavy rain is a concern due to boundary-parallel flow along the cold front and PWATS near 1.5". Rain totals Saturday through Sunday morning will total 0.50 to 1 inch. Gradually drying out Sunday with a quick rebound in temperatures as zonal flow resumes aloft. Highs in the 80s linger into midweek. Unsettled weather creeps into the forecast by this time too, with an active mid-latitude jet running through the Northern Plains and spilling into the Great Lakes. This bring showers and storms into the forecast starting Monday night (perhaps as early as Monday afternoon), becoming most widespread by Wednesday as a cold front threatens to blast through. Thus, trending cooler to round out next week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 138 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024 VFR conditions will continue this forecast period as a ridge of high pressure slowly shifts east of the area. South-southeast return flow will continue on backside of this high pressure today, generally around 10 knots. High clouds will increase tonight downstream of an upper level disturbance that will make its way across Missouri. Better low level moisture return will initially be limited by southeast component of low level wind and overall weak magnitudes to the advective wind fields. Better moisture advection should not arrive at terminals until after 18Z Saturday afternoon in association with elevated warm frontal feature. Primarily dry conditions should continue at terminals through midday Saturday, with a ramping up of chances during mid-late afternoon hours. A few thunderstorms will be possible, but overall instability fields still appear quite weak suggesting only an isolated thunder potential. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...None. OH...None. MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Brown AVIATION...Marsili