Extended Streamflow Prediction
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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415 FGUS63 KKRF 201854 ESPJAM LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOURI BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER PLEASANT HILL MO 1136 PM CDT MON AUG 19 2024 ******************************************************** ********* THESE NUMBERS ARE PRODUCED WITH HEFS ********* ******************************************************** IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT ESP (CS), HEFS, AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD. HEFS VALUES INDICATE THE HEFS PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS. CS VALUES INDICATE THE ESP PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS. HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS OR HEFS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS OR HEFS IS LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER THAN NORMAL. :...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING... VALID PERIOD: 08/24/2024 - 11/22/2024 : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES : OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES : AS A PERCENTAGE(%) CATEGORICAL : FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR | HEFS CS HS |HEFS CS HS |HEFS CS HS -------- ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- :PIPESTEM CR AT PINGREE ND 3W PGEN8 11.0 13.0 15.0 | 5 6 <5 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 :JAMES R AT GRACE CITY ND 3W GCEN8 12.0 14.0 15.0 | <5 5 5 | <5 5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 :JAMES R AT LA-MOURE ND LAMN8 14.0 16.0 18.0 | <5 6 <5 | <5 5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 :ELM R AT WESTPORT SD 1N WESS2 14.0 16.0 19.0 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 :JAMES R AT COLUMBIA SD 1S CMBS2 13.0 16.0 18.0 | 97 98 11 | 13 9 6 | <5 7 <5 :JAMES R AT STRATFORD SD 7SW SFDS2 14.0 17.0 18.5 | 74 98 15 | 10 10 8 | <5 7 5 :SNAKE CR AT ASHTON SD 2S SNKS2 11.5 13.0 16.0 | 7 <5 11 | 6 <5 5 | <5 <5 <5 :JAMES R AT ASHTON SD ATNS2 13.0 14.0 16.0 | 17 11 9 | 14 10 8 | 10 9 6 :TURTLE CR AT REDFIELD SD ID8S2 7.0 10.0 15.0 | 19 21 21 | 9 <5 7 | <5 <5 <5 :JAMES R AT REDFIELD SD 3NE RFDS2 20.0 22.0 25.0 | 7 8 5 | 6 6 <5 | <5 5 <5 :JAMES R AT HURON SD HURS2 11.5 15.0 19.0 | 30 22 12 | 7 7 <5 | <5 <5 <5 :JAMES R AT FORESTBURG SD 4SE FORS2 12.0 14.5 18.0 | 21 19 17 | 8 7 5 | <5 <5 <5 :JAMES R AT MITCHELL SD 4SE JRMS2 17.0 21.5 24.0 | 27 23 16 | <5 <5 5 | <5 <5 <5 :FIRESTEEL CR AT MOUNT VERNON SD 5N MTVS2 8.0 13.0 15.0 | <5 11 13 | <5 <5 5 | <5 <5 <5 :JAMES R AT SCOTLAND SD 5NE SCOS2 13.0 16.0 18.0 | 15 14 14 | <5 7 8 | <5 5 6 :JAMES R AT YANKTON SD YNNS2 12.0 16.0 21.0 | <5 10 9 | <5 5 6 | <5 <5 5 :W FK VERMILLION R AT PARKER SD 3WNW PKRS2 9.0 10.0 12.0 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 :E FK VERMILLION R AT PARKER SD 4NE VRPS2 12.0 14.0 16.5 | 10 10 12 | 8 6 10 | <5 <5 6 :VERMILLION R AT DAVIS SD 2SE DVSS2 11.0 13.0 15.0 | 18 16 19 | 8 10 16 | <5 <5 5 :VERMILLION R AT WAKONDA SD 7ESE WKAS2 14.0 15.5 17.0 | 18 22 20 | 14 16 18 | <5 13 17 :VERMILLION R AT VERMILLION SD 3N VERS2 21.0 22.0 30.0 | <5 13 16 | <5 12 15 | <5 <5 <5 LEGEND HEFS = HYDROLOGIC ENSEMBLE FORECAST SERVICE SIMULATION (CURRENT) CS = CONDITIONAL ESP SIMULATION (CURRENT) HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION FT = FEET IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE HEFS PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD. :...TABLE 2--HEFS EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES... .B KRF 0824 Z DH12 /DC2408200436/DVD90/HGVFPXT/HGVFPX9/HGVFPXH .B1 /HGVFPX5/HGVFPXG/HGVFPX1/HGVFPXF : CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS : VALID PERIOD = 08/24/2024 - 11/22/2024 : 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% : --- --- --- --- --- --- --- :PIPESTEM CR PGEN8 5.4/ 5.4/ 5.4/ 8.3/ 7.1/ 9.3/ 10.8/ :JAMES R GCEN8 5.1/ 5.1/ 5.1/ 7.2/ 6.7/ 8.8/ 9.6/ LAMN8 9.2/ 9.2/ 9.2/ 9.9/ 9.6/ 10.3/ 10.7/ :ELM R WESS2 4.8/ 4.8/ 4.8/ 7.5/ 6.5/ 9.8/ 10.5/ :JAMES R CMBS2 13.3/ 13.3/ 13.3/ 15.4/ 14.5/ 17.0/ 17.8/ :JAMES R SFDS2 13.9/ 14.0/ 14.0/ 16.5/ 16.3/ 17.0/ 18.2/ :SNAKE CR SNKS2 3.0/ 3.0/ 3.0/ 6.0/ 5.8/ 8.6/ 14.8/ :JAMES R ATNS2 10.0/ 10.0/ 10.0/ 12.4/ 12.1/ 16.2/ 19.7/ :TURTLE CR ID8S2 3.4/ 3.4/ 3.5/ 6.9/ 5.7/ 9.6/ 12.0/ :JAMES R RFDS2 9.1/ 9.1/ 9.1/ 12.7/ 12.0/ 16.4/ 23.1/ HURS2 10.3/ 10.3/ 10.4/ 12.1/ 11.8/ 14.7/ 15.7/ FORS2 8.6/ 8.6/ 8.9/ 12.3/ 11.4/ 14.2/ 14.8/ JRMS2 14.0/ 14.0/ 14.2/ 17.9/ 17.4/ 19.1/ 19.5/ :FIRESTEEL CR MTVS2 2.5/ 2.5/ 2.5/ 2.5/ 2.5/ 3.7/ 6.8/ :JAMES R SCOS2 6.6/ 6.7/ 7.2/ 12.3/ 11.6/ 13.8/ 15.1/ YNNS2 4.3/ 4.3/ 4.5/ 8.5/ 7.4/ 9.5/ 10.9/ :W FK VERMILLION R PKRS2 1.3/ 1.3/ 1.3/ 3.2/ 3.2/ 4.1/ 5.7/ :E FK VERMILLION R VRPS2 4.2/ 4.2/ 4.2/ 7.7/ 7.4/ 12.0/ 15.1/ :VERMILLION R DVSS2 3.5/ 3.5/ 3.6/ 10.5/ 10.1/ 12.6/ 13.2/ WKAS2 4.7/ 4.7/ 5.0/ 13.1/ 11.7/ 15.8/ 16.7/ VERS2 3.2/ 3.2/ 4.4/ 13.6/ 12.7/ 16.2/ 19.7/ .END IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE HEFS PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD. :...TABLE 3--HEFS NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES... .B KRF 0824 Z DH12 /DC2408200436/DVD90/HGVFPNT/HGVFPN9/HGVFPNH .B1 /HGVFPN5/HGVFPNG/HGVFPN1/HGVFPNF : CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES (FT) AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS : VALID PERIOD = 08/24/2024 - 11/22/2024 : 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% : --- --- --- --- --- --- --- :PIPESTEM CR PGEN8 5.0/ 4.7/ 4.7/ 4.7/ 4.7/ 4.7/ 4.7/ :JAMES R GCEN8 4.8/ 4.5/ 4.5/ 4.4/ 4.4/ 4.4/ 4.4/ LAMN8 7.5/ 7.4/ 7.0/ 6.9/ 6.9/ 6.9/ 6.9/ :ELM R WESS2 4.4/ 4.3/ 4.3/ 4.2/ 4.2/ 4.2/ 4.2/ :JAMES R CMBS2 6.5/ 3.6/ 3.6/ 3.6/ 3.6/ 3.6/ 3.6/ :JAMES R SFDS2 10.2/ 6.9/ 4.9/ 4.9/ 4.9/ 4.9/ 4.9/ :SNAKE CR SNKS2 3.3/ 3.1/ 3.0/ 2.6/ 2.6/ 2.6/ 2.6/ :JAMES R ATNS2 7.1/ 5.8/ 3.7/ 3.2/ 3.2/ 3.2/ 3.2/ :TURTLE CR ID8S2 3.4/ 3.2/ 3.2/ 3.1/ 3.1/ 3.1/ 3.1/ :JAMES R RFDS2 6.7/ 5.7/ 3.9/ 3.2/ 3.2/ 3.1/ 3.1/ HURS2 10.0/ 9.7/ 9.2/ 9.1/ 9.1/ 9.1/ 9.1/ FORS2 7.2/ 6.3/ 4.8/ 4.3/ 4.3/ 4.3/ 4.3/ JRMS2 13.3/ 12.3/ 10.8/ 10.1/ 10.1/ 10.0/ 10.0/ :FIRESTEEL CR MTVS2 2.5/ 2.4/ 2.3/ 2.3/ 2.3/ 2.3/ 2.3/ :JAMES R SCOS2 6.1/ 5.9/ 5.0/ 4.5/ 4.5/ 4.5/ 4.5/ YNNS2 4.1/ 3.9/ 3.1/ 3.0/ 3.0/ 3.0/ 3.0/ :W FK VERMILLION R PKRS2 1.3/ 1.3/ 1.3/ 1.2/ 1.2/ 1.2/ 1.2/ :E FK VERMILLION R VRPS2 4.3/ 4.2/ 4.2/ 4.1/ 4.1/ 4.1/ 4.1/ :VERMILLION R DVSS2 3.6/ 3.5/ 3.4/ 3.4/ 3.4/ 3.4/ 3.3/ WKAS2 4.0/ 1.1/ 1.0/ 1.0/ 1.0/ 1.0/ 1.0/ VERS2 3.2/ 3.1/ 3.1/ 3.0/ 3.0/ 3.0/ 3.0/ .END $$