936
FXUS64 KJAN 221958
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
258 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024

...New DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 239 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024

Through Tonight:

Clusters of thunderstorms have begun to form along a stationary
front from Texas to Arkansas. A complex is expected to develop
from this activity and continue to move east, progged to impact
our area later this evening. Rich low level moisture is evident
across the ArkLaTex region and into northern Louisiana. Deep
shear around 40 to 50 kts is ample for organization and will aid
in the upscale growth of the MCS. A sharp instability gradient is
noted on RAP analysis from roughly Monroe LA, to New Orleans LA,
and will likely serve as a focused track for the MCS later today
with waning daytime heating. A slight/marginal risk has been
highlighted for western portions of the area, roughly along and
west of the Natchez Trace corridor. Primary threat will be for
damaging winds, but hail quarter to golf ball size and tornadoes
are also possible.

In addition, the orientation of the boundary and storm motions could
lead to some potentially greater rainfall totals. There is
potential for a 3 inch bullseye to sneak into far western portions
of the area, notably Morehouse/Richland/Franklin Parishes. Given
this potential, have added a Limited threat area for flash
flooding into the morning tomorrow.

Further east, drier air will greatly limit severe potential, as the
greater ingredients will remain further south and west. As the MCS
moves away from this source region it should decay. A few lingering
showers and storms from this complex will be possible tonight east
of the risk area, but are not expected to post a threat. The MCS
should dissipate by daybreak and could have implications on the set
up for tomorrow`s system./SAS/

Thursday through Wednesday:

There is a Marginal Risk for severe storms again on Thursday, with
a similar synoptic setup in place. A Slight Risk area closer to
the front (northwest of our CWA) remains in place, but better flow
through the atmosphere and an uptick in instability suggest the
threat for severe storms will expand into our area heading into
tomorrow as well. Realistically, the chance for strong to severe
storms resulting from daytime and evening convection will extend
through the weekend. Above-normal heights associated with the
upper-level ridge will retreat southward over the Gulf of Mexico
as broad longwave troughing dominates the western and central
CONUS. Disturbances rippling out of this wave across the country
will provide the support for this mainly diurnal activity to
organize and progress eastward each day. Any particular afternoon,
areas around the US Highway 82 corridor have the greatest chances
for storms through this time, though I wouldn`t rule out the
chance anywhere. A southern jet stream over the region should add
the flow needed for possible organized wind threat with any deep
convection. Then as we move from Monday into Tuesday, a cold front
should sweep southeast through the region. This front will also
carry a threat for strong to severe storms, but it`s too far out
to have confidence on the timing right now. Before the front
arrives, Sunday and Monday look to be HOT. The possibility of
105-110 heat index values will put residents under the threat of
dangerous heat stress. Will likely need graphics if it appears
that widespread rain will hold off those days. /NF/

&&

.AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1256 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024

A persistent southerly flow pattern will bring another round
IFR/LIFR category stratus/fog to the PIB/HBG area during the early
morning hours. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions and southerly
surface wind to prevail for the most part. There may be an
increased threat for TSRA in the GLH/GWO area by this afternoon
and into the evening, but confidence is a bit too low to include
in the TAFs. /EC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       70  90  72  91 /  40  20  10   0
Meridian      68  90  69  92 /  10  20  10  10
Vicksburg     70  90  71  92 /  70  20  10   0
Hattiesburg   68  91  71  93 /  10  10   0   0
Natchez       70  90  71  92 /  40  10  10   0
Greenville    70  86  72  90 /  80  40  40  10
Greenwood     70  87  71  91 /  70  40  40  20

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SAS20/NF