398
FXUS64 KJAN 191727
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1227 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024

...New AVIATION...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 948 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024

No significant changes were made in this morning`s update. A high
pressure ridge is expected to continue to build into the Lower MS
Valley through this afternoon. Deep N/NW flow will allow for drier
air to continue to infiltrate the region. This will also enable
efficient daytime heating, with highs climbing into the upper 80s
to low 90s. Mostly clear skies with a weak northerly wind will
prevail through the afternoon. /AJ/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 421 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024

Today and Tonight:

Patchy, dense fog development will be possible in eastern portions
of the CWA during early morning hours but is expected to dissipate
after sunrise. A quiet, dry, and sunny day is expected across the
ArkLaMiss region as an upper/mid level ridge migrate towards the
area from the southwest. High temperatures are expected to be in the
upper 80s to near 90 degrees to help make for a very warm day.
Clear skies and quiet conditions will continue into the evening
with overnight temperatures ranging from the lower 60s to near 70
degrees in the Delta region. Fog development may be possible
towards the southern area closer to daybreak on Monday. /SW/

Monday through Saturday: Much of the long range forecast for our
area will feature rather hot days, with dry weather early in the
week giving way to the potential for stormier conditions by mid
to late week. Anticyclonic flow associated with a subtropical
ridge extending from Mexico into the Southern Plains will have the
most influence on our weather, and with H850 temperatures
approaching 20 deg C in the global models, it wouldn`t be
surprising to see a few locations reach the mid 90s at some point.
Fortunately, the boundary layer RH is not expected to
reciprocate, and this should help keep heat stress from becoming a
big concern.

As we go into mid/late week, a significant shortwave trough
moving across the Plains/MS Valley is expected to suppress the
ridge some and allow a cold front to push into our region. This
will likely increase thunderstorm chances for northwest/northern
portions of the forecast area, where increased mid level flow
could help to organize potential storms resulting in increased
potential for strong to severe storms. As of now, the severe
threat only grazes the upper ArkLaMiss region, and it is likely
that the anticyclone will delay storm impacts for most of the
area, so will continue to hold off on messaging severe weather in
the graphics until confidence increases. /EC/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Light and variable
winds are expected. /AJ/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       66  89  68  90 /   0   0   0   0
Meridian      63  89  66  90 /   0   0   0   0
Vicksburg     66  91  69  91 /   0   0   0   0
Hattiesburg   65  91  68  91 /   0   0   0   0
Natchez       66  90  69  90 /   0   0   0   0
Greenville    68  91  71  91 /   0   0   0   0
Greenwood     67  91  69  91 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

AJ/EC/AJ