Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
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911 FXUS64 KJAN 251754 AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 1254 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 ...New AVIATION... .MESOSCALE UPDATE... Issued at 1040 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Mesoscale Update: Longwave troughing around a closed low progressing through the lower Mississippi River Valley will continue to shift east as a couple spokes of shortwave energy pivot through the area. At the same time a weakening cold front will continue to progress southward through the area today as showers and a thunderstorm or two propagate along the front into this afternoon. As the cold front clears the area rain chances will diminish with most of the area remaining dry throughout the rest of the day. The best rain chances will be this morning into mid-day with them diminishing into this afternoon. We are currently seeing this trend come to fruition and expect it to continue./KP/ && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 326 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Today and Tonight: early morning water vapor imagery/RAP analysis showed the circulation around a rather amplified trough extending south across the ArkLaTex region from a closed low centered over the mid Mississippi valley. Several subtle shortwaves were noted poised to round the base of the trough and across our CWA within the resulting southwest flow. One such shortwave was moving over our CWA and helping to redevelop convection along and south of a weak cold front that surface analysis had sagging into central MS. The 00Z Wed JAN sounding still showed a warm moist airmass in place with a PWAT of 1.87in. Hi-res models suggest the convection will continue to increase this morning until the shortwave shifts northeast of Mississippi later this morning. There will likely be a brief lull in the convection around noon before the next shortwave combines with daytime heating and the cold front to redevelop convection early this is afternoon. The cold front is expected to be south or just pushing south of our CWA by evening ending the rain chances. Dry weather is expected by midnight and cooler and drier air will filter into our CWA. This will lead to cooler than normal morning lows with a few locations bottoming out in the upper 50s in our north. /22/ Long Term (Thurs-Tues): Wet pattern continues for the ArkLaMiss region Thursday as a closed- low situates over the Ozarks and a washed out frontal boundary hangs around the area. In the southeast Gulf of Mexico: Tropical Storm Helene is expected to become a hurricane/major hurricane before landfall. Direct impacts from Helene is not expected for the CWA, but will help transport tropical moisture into the region. Both low pressure systems are expected to provide sufficient moisture to the area to keep isolated/scattered showers in the forecast through Saturday. Areas east of I-55 and north of I-20 has the greatest potential (15-50%) to see rainfall. Post landfall, Helene will absorb into the main flow and the closed-low will gradually move towards the northeast Sunday. Drier conditions and seasonal temperatures will settle in once the closed-low migrates northward at the start of the new week. /SW/ && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1239 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Currently TAF sites will bounce around in category, varying cloud bases and declining showery/storm activity in the region will continue to impact TAF sites into early afternoon. By late afternoon the front will have moved through the area and conditions will improve, leaving all TAF sites in VFR/MVFR conditions by 0Z. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 64 82 62 79 / 0 10 20 20 Meridian 63 81 62 80 / 10 20 30 20 Vicksburg 63 83 61 80 / 0 0 10 10 Hattiesburg 68 85 64 84 / 10 10 10 10 Natchez 63 81 61 80 / 10 0 0 10 Greenville 60 81 62 74 / 0 10 20 40 Greenwood 60 83 62 75 / 0 10 30 40 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ KP/SW/22