888
FXUS64 KJAN 230552
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1252 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024

...New AVIATION...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 908 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024

Cluster of thunderstorms are occuring across the Delta this
evening, with some flash flooding occuring. High res models
suggest that these storms will inch eastward through the evening
into the overnight hours before dissipating very early on
Thursday. A strong to possibly severe storm will continue to be
possible over the next few hours, but the main concern will be
flash flooding. The main area of concern for flash flooding will
continue to be generally northwest of the Natchez Trace Corridor.
Overnight lows will mostly be in the mid to upper 60s./15/


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 239 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024

Through Tonight:

Clusters of thunderstorms have begun to form along a stationary
front from Texas to Arkansas. A complex is expected to develop
from this activity and continue to move east, progged to impact
our area later this evening. Rich low level moisture is evident
across the ArkLaTex region and into northern Louisiana. Deep
shear around 40 to 50 kts is ample for organization and will aid
in the upscale growth of the MCS. A sharp instability gradient is
noted on RAP analysis from roughly Monroe LA, to New Orleans LA,
and will likely serve as a focused track for the MCS later today
with waning daytime heating. A slight/marginal risk has been
highlighted for western portions of the area, roughly along and
west of the Natchez Trace corridor. Primary threat will be for
damaging winds, but hail quarter to golf ball size and tornadoes
are also possible.

In addition, the orientation of the boundary and storm motions could
lead to some potentially greater rainfall totals. There is
potential for a 3 inch bullseye to sneak into far western portions
of the area, notably Morehouse/Richland/Franklin Parishes. Given
this potential, have added a Limited threat area for flash
flooding into the morning tomorrow.

Further east, drier air will greatly limit severe potential, as the
greater ingredients will remain further south and west. As the MCS
moves away from this source region it should decay. A few lingering
showers and storms from this complex will be possible tonight east
of the risk area, but are not expected to post a threat. The MCS
should dissipate by daybreak and could have implications on the set
up for tomorrow`s system./SAS/

Thursday through Wednesday:

There is a Marginal Risk for severe storms again on Thursday, with
a similar synoptic setup in place. A Slight Risk area closer to
the front (northwest of our CWA) remains in place, but better flow
through the atmosphere and an uptick in instability suggest the
threat for severe storms will expand into our area heading into
tomorrow as well. Realistically, the chance for strong to severe
storms resulting from daytime and evening convection will extend
through the weekend. Above-normal heights associated with the
upper-level ridge will retreat southward over the Gulf of Mexico
as broad longwave troughing dominates the western and central
CONUS. Disturbances rippling out of this wave across the country
will provide the support for this mainly diurnal activity to
organize and progress eastward each day. Any particular afternoon,
areas around the US Highway 82 corridor have the greatest chances
for storms through this time, though I wouldn`t rule out the
chance anywhere. A southern jet stream over the region should add
the flow needed for possible organized wind threat with any deep
convection. Then as we move from Monday into Tuesday, a cold front
should sweep southeast through the region. This front will also
carry a threat for strong to severe storms, but it`s too far out
to have confidence on the timing right now. Before the front
arrives, Sunday and Monday look to be HOT. The possibility of
105-110 heat index values will put residents under the threat of
dangerous heat stress. Will likely need graphics if it appears
that widespread rain will hold off those days. /NF/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1252 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024

Current radar scans show numerous showers and storms moving east
across the forecast area to start off the TAF period with heavier
showers moving across the Delta. Several northern sites (GLH and
GWO) will see a mixture of MVFR/IFR ceilings through the overnight
period. A brief period of low-level wind shear will occur at GLH
starting around 06Z-08Z Thursday. Elsewhere, expect a mixture of
VFR/MVFR conditions for the remaining TAF sites as showers
continue to move further east. /CR/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       89  72  91  72 /  20  10   0  10
Meridian      89  69  92  72 /  20  10  10  10
Vicksburg     90  71  92  73 /  20  10   0  10
Hattiesburg   91  71  93  72 /  10   0   0   0
Natchez       89  71  92  72 /  20  10   0   0
Greenville    87  72  90  74 /  50  40  10  40
Greenwood     87  71  91  72 /  50  40  20  40

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SAS/NF/CR/15