Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
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664 FXUS64 KJAN 171233 AAA AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson MS 733 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024 ...New MESOSCALE UPDATE, AVIATION... .MESOSCALE UPDATE... Issued at 727 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024 In the wake of last night`s storms, a warm frontal type feature is focusing moisture convergence and lift this morning. While various guidance were having a hard time pinning the location of the feature down, this is the anticipated flash flooding threat we have been advertising. Warm and very moist air running into a west-east oriented boundary - with deep layer flow that is parallel to the boundary - is a setup for heavy rain with training thunderstorms. We will continue to monitor trends through the morning, but anticipate flash flooding in the near term. /NF/ && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 442 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024 Today and Tonight: A positively-tilted trough remains stretched from west to north of our forecast area early this morning, but it is on the move today. Despite the MCS that blew east along the Gulf Coast overnight, continued southwesterly flow aloft associated with the trough should help some with moisture recovery into the daytime today. Resulting destabilization across south-central and southeastern MS will coincide with persistent 40-50 kts of deep-layer wind shear, so any thunderstorms that develop or move into the southeastern 1/3rd of our forecast area today into tonight could pose a threat for organized severe weather. A Slight Risk for severe storms covers much of the Pine Belt. The threat for heavy rain also accompanies this activity, with 1.5-2.0 inch PWAT values along the central Gulf Coast supporting efficient rain-producing storms. Given the recent rainfall in those areas, a quick 2 to 3 inches of rain with any heavier storms could lead to flash flooding. Will therefore keep the Flash Flood Watch in effect heading into tonight. /NF/ Saturday through Thursday: Showers and thunderstorms will continue on Saturday as a cold front moves across the region. A "Marginal" risk for severe weather will be possible along the I-59 corridor and the Pine Belt. Along with severe weather potential, a flash flooding threat continues as additional 0.5 to 1 inch of rainfall will be possible. A Flood Watch will remain in effect until Saturday afternoon as an "Elevated" risk continues for areas south of I-20 and near the Pine Belt. Rainfall is expected to come to an end as a frontal boundary migrates eastward Saturday afternoon. Isolated showers will be possible post passage but is expected to diminish throughout the evening. Beginning Sunday, a drying period is expected to begin as a ridging pattern builds in from the southwest. Southerly flow will advect warm and moist air into the region thanks to an from an amplifying ridge heading into mid-week. As a result, a warming trend will take place and bring high temperatures to the lower 90s and lows in the upper 60s/lower 70s. By the close of the extended period, the aforementioned ridge will slide eastward, allowing for shower/thunderstorm chances to return ahead of the next frontal boundary moving towards the southeastern CONUS. /SW/ && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 727 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024 Showers, thunderstorms, and low stratus will cause generally poor flying conditions through at least 18Z today, with some chance for improvement after that time frame. Amendments may be necessary. /NF/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 81 67 82 65 / 80 30 50 10 Meridian 81 67 85 64 / 100 40 60 10 Vicksburg 82 67 84 66 / 40 20 30 0 Hattiesburg 84 68 85 66 / 90 60 60 10 Natchez 81 66 84 66 / 100 30 30 0 Greenville 81 68 83 67 / 30 30 40 0 Greenwood 79 67 82 65 / 50 20 50 10 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...Flood Watch through Saturday morning for MSZ049>052-054>066- 072>074. LA...Flood Watch through Saturday morning for LAZ024-026. AR...None. && $$ NF/SW