Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
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551 FXUS64 KJAN 181730 AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 1230 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024 ...New AVIATION... .MESOSCALE UPDATE... Issued at 940 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024 A fairly quiet morning is expected to transpire over the next several hours as mid-level westerly flow persists into the CWA. Hi-res satellite imagery shows clearing of low level clouds and dissipating fog as a trough axis digs southeast of the CWA, where a potent system generates storms along the AL/FL coastal areas. Luckily for us, this will keep the moisture axis mostly out of the CWA, limiting the heavy rain and severe potential in the south. For the northeastern portion of the CWA, clearing is expected to take place over the next several hours, allowing for instability to increase. Additionally, a weak axis of moisture along a closed low near southwestern MS looks to generate enough energy to pose a low end severe weather risk this afternoon into the early evening. Lapse rates are fairly increased, along with SBCAPE climbing between 1500 - 2000 J/kg per RAP mesoanalysis. The potential for isolated severe storms will have the risks of damaging wind gusts and hail up to quarter size if a decent updraft is able to develop. Otherwise, expect partly cloudy skies with highs into the lower to middle 80s this afternoon. /AJ/ && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 422 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024 Today through tonight: Morning radar is showing the majority of the precipitation south of the CWA. Areas of patchy fog will be possible for southwestern and south-central areas during the early morning hours but will dissipate after sunrise. A shortwave trough will continue to progress eastward, helping to push a stalled frontal boundary near Louisiana away from the region. Ahead of the trough, showers and a few thunderstorms will continue to be possible throughout the day with better rain chances over the eastern and southeastern portions of the CWA. As most of the heavy rainfall remains near the Gulf coast and with accumulation totals begin 0.5 inches or less, the flood watch was cancelled, but a "Marginal" risk for severe weather remains for southeastern and eastern portions of the area. Damaging wind gusts up 60 mph and hail up to quarter size are the primary hazards of concern. The aforementioned trough is expected to push through the area by the afternoon, bringing rain chances to an end from west to east late afternoon and into the evening. Clouds will gradually clear out into the overnight hours resulting in low temperatures dropping into the 60s. /SW/ Sunday through Friday: It looks like most of the long range forecast for our area will feature rather hot days and dry weather. Anticyclonic flow associated with a subtropical ridge extending from Mexico into the Southern Plains will have the most influence on our weather through early to mid week. With H850 temperatures reaching 18 to 20 deg C in the guidance, it wouldn`t be surprising to see a few locations reach the mid 90s at some point. Fortunately, the boundary layer RH is not expected to reciprocate, and this should help keep heat stress from becoming a big concern. As we go into mid/late week, a significant shortwave trough moving across the Plains/MS Valley is expected to suppress the ridge some and allow a cold front to push into our region. This will likely increase thunderstorm chances for mainly northwest/northern portions of the forecast area, and we may need to monitor for strong to severe storm potential. /EC/ && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1224 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024 VFR conditions are expected across sites this afternoon as an upper trough moves east of the region, improving cigs. By 18Z, iso VCSH/VCTS could impact GWO/GTR/MEI and briefly decrease vis and cigs, otherwise VFR conditions are expected. By 10Z, BR/FG will be possible at HBG/PIB, but conditions are expected to improve by 13Z. /AJ/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 66 89 66 89 / 10 0 0 0 Meridian 63 88 64 90 / 20 0 0 0 Vicksburg 66 89 66 91 / 10 0 0 0 Hattiesburg 66 90 66 91 / 10 0 0 0 Natchez 66 88 67 90 / 10 0 0 0 Greenville 68 90 67 91 / 0 0 0 0 Greenwood 66 90 66 90 / 10 0 0 0 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ AJ/EC/AJ