062
FXUS62 KJAX 300517
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
117 AM EDT Thu May 30 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 200 PM EDT Wed May 29 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

The weakening cold front is over south central Florida this
afternoon and will remain fairly stationary through tonight or
perhaps dissipate over South Florida as high pressure builds to
the north of the region. As a result, NWLY flow will continue over
the region with markedly drier air moving over the region with
dewpoints dropping into the mid 50s inland to lower 60s at the
coast this late afternoon and early evening. By tonight a dry
airmass will be in place (PWATs < 1 in. north of I-10, and slightly
above 1" south of I-10)) to settle across the region. Lows tonight
will "cool" into the low to upper 60s to near 70 at the beaches and
along the St. Johns in downtown JAX with light north winds or nearly
calm wind.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday through Friday night)
Issued at 200 PM EDT Wed May 29 2024

Dry conditions will continue area-wide Thursday as a weak front
moves south of the area. High temperatures will reach the upper
80s to mid 90s, however with lower dewpoints, heat indices will
max out in the lower to mid 90s.

Northerly steering flow will linger into Friday, although an east
coast sea breeze will fill in in the afternoon, bringing moisture
back into northeast Florida. Rain chances will be limited to
15-30%, mainly inland south of I-10, and some isolated
thunderstorms cannot be ruled out. Similar high temperatures to
Thursday expected Friday, with slightly cooler coastal temps due
to the afternoon sea breeze.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 200 PM EDT Wed May 29 2024

High pressure over the Carolina`s will begin to sink southeastward
this weekend, promoting onshore flow locally. PWATs remain pretty
low on Saturday limiting rain chances, by Sunday they will
increase near 1.5 inches (still below normal). Breezy onshore
winds and an afternoon sea breeze will allow for isolated to
scattered precip chances on Sunday area-wide. `Cooler` high
temperatures forecast for this weekend, ranging from the lower 80s
to lower 90s with the lower values along the coast.

Temperatures will slowly heat back up during the work week with
daily afternoon scattered rain/thunderstorm chances.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 117 AM EDT Thu May 30 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period with a
chance for reduced visibility at VQQ during the early morning
hours between around 09z to 11z. Calm winds overnight then NNE
winds less than 10 kts develop after sunrise. Winds become more
easterly for the coastal TAF sites after 18Z as the Atlantic sea
breeze shifts inland.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 200 PM EDT Wed May 29 2024

High pressure builds northwest of the region. The high will build
north of the waters into Thursday, then begin to shift northeast
of the area into Friday. Onshore easterly winds increase into the
weekend as high pressure builds offshore of the mid- Atlantic
coast.

Rip Currents: Low risk of rip currents at area beaches through
tonight. Increase to moderate risk for the later part of Thursday
afternoon as winds become more onshore.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  88  64  88  65 /  10   0  10   0
SSI  88  72  84  73 /  10   0  10  10
JAX  91  69  89  68 /  10   0  10  10
SGJ  89  72  88  72 /  10   0  10  10
GNV  94  67  92  67 /  10   0  20   0
OCF  95  68  94  68 /  10   0  30  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$