811
FXUS62 KJAX 281258
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
858 AM EDT Tue May 28 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 857 AM EDT Tue May 28 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Forecast remains on track overall through this morning and into
the afternoon hours. No major updates at this time.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Tue May 28 2024

Pre-frontal showers and storms over SE GA and Suwannee Valley have
weakened early this morning as the low level airmass stabilizes
and low level subsidence persists. Meanwhile, the cool front
gradually enters SE GA by sunrise and across the FL/GA border by
this afternoon. Dry airmass (PWATs < 1 in.) filters into SE GA in
the wake of the front limiting any convection to NE FL after
sunrise. Convection reinvigorates later this morning into early
afternoon as the front encounters the pinned Atlantic sea breeze
and the airmass destabilizes. Convection wanes and shifts to the
southeast of the area later this afternoon. Highs soar into the
low to mid 90s once again with skies clearing from northwest to
southeast through the day. Heat indices around 100 degrees will be
possible in north-central FL and coastal areas east of the St.
Johns river. Dry airmass moving in will help heat indices remain
in the 90s elsewhere. Clear skies and light winds could lead to
patchy fog developing along the I-75 corridor early Wednesday
morning. Overnight lows "cool" into the mid 60s inland and around
70 along the coast.

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday through Thursday night)
Issued at 300 AM EDT Tue May 28 2024

The weather pattern this period is dominated by sfc high pressure
ridge to the north of the area while the frontal boundary is generally
stationary over central FL. The flow aloft is northwesterly with
periods of mid to high clouds expected, with one or two shortwave
disturbances over the central and eastern Gulf coast. The airmass
overall is too dry to support much of any precip chance Wed-Thu.
However, we can`t rule out an isolated shower or storm Thursday
aftn and night with skies more partly cloudy owing to additional
mid to high clouds as shortwave energy rounds the based of a 500
mb trough. High temperatures Wed and Thu continue to be a bit
above normal, around 90 to lower 90s. Some mid 90s possible
southern most inland zones where the frontal boundary affects are
weaker. Heat indices are below 100 given much drier dewpoint air.
Drier conditions aloft and lower dewpoint air will be supportive
of low temperatures in the mid to upper 60s to around 70. Lower
70s likely along the coast and St Johns River Basin. We did note
the blended MOS guidance showing lower 60s min temps over inland
areas Wed night, but at this time looks too low.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 300 AM EDT Tue May 28 2024

Models show sfc high pressure ridge from a 1025 mb high centered
over the Ohio Valley to north FL. The GFS and ECMWF show some
isolated precip chances on Friday due to weak forcing aloft and
adequate low to mid level moisture. Not too confident on rain
chances at this time. For the weekend and into early next week,
the sfc high pressure will shift east and southeast, and be
positioned offshore the east coast on Monday. In general, chances
for mainly diurnal convection increase as low level moisture
slowly increases again. Best chances will be inland on Sunday
though only chance POPs of around 25-35 percent, and then
slightly better for most areas on Monday at 25-40 percent. Daily
high temperatures will be more comfortable in the 80s to near 90
and min temps in the 60s to near 70, so anticipate lows and highs
at near normal levels.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 736 AM EDT Tue May 28 2024

Showers with possible isolated thunderstorms will continue to
move across the forecast area with the strongest developments
expected to occur southward of the I-10 corridor affecting GNV and
SGJ at around 16z to 19z. VFR conditions are expected for the
remainder of the period with W-NW winds becoming more mild and
variable during the evening and overnight hours.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Tue May 28 2024

Showers and storms will move across the local waters early this
morning into afternoon ahead of a weak cool front. The front will
stall south of the waters Tonight and linger through Thursday as
high pressure builds northwest of the region. High pressure
builds north and northeast of the region Thursday and Friday
pushing the frontal boundary southward. Onshore easterly winds
increase into the weekend as high pressure builds offshore of mid-
Atlantic coast.

Rip Currents: Low risk of rip currents at area beaches today.
Increase to moderate risk for NE FL beaches on Wednesday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Tue May 28 2024

Heavy rainfall that fell in Atkinson, Berrien and Lanier counties
will eventually make its way down the Alapaha and Satilla rivers
exacerbating any river flooding. River flooding continues along
the Santa Fe and Satilla rivers this week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  91  66  91  66 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  91  71  90  70 /  20   0   0   0
JAX  94  68  93  67 /  20   0   0   0
SGJ  92  72  91  69 /  30   0   0   0
GNV  92  67  94  65 /  30   0   0   0
OCF  92  70  95  67 /  40   0  10   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$