461
FXUS62 KJAX 290715
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
315 AM EDT Wed May 29 2024

...HOT AND DRY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 315 AM EDT Wed May 29 2024

A weakening frontal boundary over NE FL this morning will shift
into central FL this afternoon as surface high pressure centered
over the Great Lakes extends south into the SE US. Aloft, northwesterly
flow continues as an upper trough swings through the eastern US
and ridging builds over the Plains. This flow will cause a dry
airmass (PWATs < 1 in.) to settle across the region through
tonight. Combined subsidence and dry air will suppress any
convective potential today. Under sunny skies, highs soar once
again into the low to mid 90s. Dry air will keep heat indices
below 100 degrees. Lows tonight will "cool" into the low to upper
60s.

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday through Friday night)
Issued at 315 AM EDT Wed May 29 2024

Fairly quiet weather this period with sfc high pressure ridge
building in slightly from the north as the weak frontal boundary
stalls to our south. Moisture levels are below normal with PWAT
values of only 0.8 to near 1.25 inches, with normal values this
time of year closer to about 1.45 inches. Deep layer flow is
northwesterly most of this period. There is a shortwave trough
dipping into the 500 mb trough across the southeast states on
Thursday with models generating isolated precip over parts of AL
and maybe southwest GA, but abnormally dry airmass and lack of
model support will maintain chances of only 5-10 percent for
inland southeast GA. The high pressure ridge will move east and
southeast by Friday, bringing winds around to the northeast.
Enhanced low level moisture and a stronger Atlantic sea breeze
may be enough to squeeze out some low POPs (~15-25 percent) on
Friday. Albeit, best chance near 25 percent will be inland
northeast FL Friday aftn.

Still hot Thursday with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s most
areas, with mid 90s more toward inland north central FL. However,
the dewpoints are the big difference, with afternoon dewpoint
values in the 50s most inland areas! This will keep heat indices
at or below 96. Highs Friday will be a bit lower and so heat
indices are very manageable at or below 96 again. Lows will be
fairly cool and nice in the mid 60s to near 70. MOS continues to
place some min temps around 60-62 inland areas Thu night and Fri
night. We have trended down the min temps for this package.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 315 AM EDT Wed May 29 2024

Sfc high pressure center will move through the Carolinas Saturday
and then push offshore to the southeast over the Atlantic waters
by Sunday. Onshore flow/east northeast flow expected Saturday but
Sunday becomes more east and southeast. Will maintain low POPS
Saturday around 15-20 percent and slightly higher on Sunday. The
GFS and ECMWF differ quite a bit on the moisture return so the
confidence in the POPs is lower than usual. For Mon-Tue, the sfc
high pressure center moves further east over the Atlantic with
the ridge axis across north FL. We could see daily chances of
showers and thunderstorms, though there are still big differences
in how much moisture will be available and so for now a low
chance is depicted in the forecast at 25-30 percent. Daytime
temperatures through the weekend and into early next week will
remain mainly in the mid 80s to lower 90s, with the warmest
temperatures expected on the later half of the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 125 AM EDT Wed May 29 2024

Mainly VFR conditions prevail through the period. Patchy fog may
develop near GNV around 10-12Z but confidence is low that it will
cause restrictions. Northwesterly winds between 5-10 kts develop
after 15Z for all TAF sites as a cold front shifts south of
north-central Florida.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 315 AM EDT Wed May 29 2024

A front over the coastal waters will shift south of the waters
later today as high pressure builds northwest of the region. The high
will build north of the waters into Thursday, then begin to shift
northeast of the area into Friday. Onshore easterly winds increase
into the weekend as high pressure builds offshore of the mid-
Atlantic coast.

Rip Currents: Low risk of rip currents at area beaches today. Increase
to moderate risk for Thursday as winds become more onshore.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 315 AM EDT Wed May 29 2024

Fire-sensitive pattern with Min RH values bottoming out around
25-30 percent today and 25-35 percent on Thursday. Fortunately,
winds will not meet criteria for any red flags. Headlined in
the Fire Wx Forecast is the high daytime dispersion values
both today and Thursday. A gradual increase in low level
moisture anticipated Friday through early next week and
a low chance of a shower or thunderstorm.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  90  63  88  64 /   0   0  10  10
SSI  91  70  88  70 /   0   0   0  10
JAX  94  66  91  67 /   0   0  10  10
SGJ  93  70  89  70 /   0   0  10  10
GNV  94  65  93  66 /   0   0  10   0
OCF  95  66  95  67 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$