472
FXUS62 KJAX 231808
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
208 PM EDT Thu May 23 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 202 PM EDT Thu May 23 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Flat ridging will continue to extend northeastward across our
region from the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, with a shortwave
trough expected to traverse the Tennessee Valley and the
southern Appalachians on Friday. A relatively weak surface
pressure pattern in place locally will allow the Gulf and
Atlantic sea breezes to develop this afternoon, progressing
inland and then colliding along the Interstate 75 corridor
towards sunset. There may be just enough low level moisture in
place to squeeze out an isolated shower or two along the I-75
corridor towards sunset, but a relatively dry and subsident air
mass will prevent sustained updrafts and will negate any chances
for thunderstorms later today and this evening.

Cirrus cloudiness emanating from upstream convection will continue
to thin as it enters the more subsident air mass in place over our
area through tonight. This subsident air mass may foster some
patchy fog formation during the predawn hours along the I-75
corridor and portions of inland southeast GA. Inland lows will fall
to the mid and upper 60s, ranging to the lower 70s at coastal
locations.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Saturday night)
Issued at 202 PM EDT Thu May 23 2024

High pressure ridge will sink to the south on Friday into Friday
night, as a 500mb trough moves southeast across SE GA. While much of
the area will be dry on Friday, a few showers and storms will be
possible over far northern forecast area counties.

For Saturday into Saturday night, the surface ridge will remain to
the south southeast of the area, while an upper trough is in
place over region. The combination of increasingly moist southwest
flow, sea breeze interactions, and upper waves moving through
could result in a few showers and storms Saturday afternoon into
night.

Temperatures will continue to run above normal this period.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 202 PM EDT Thu May 23 2024

The region will be between high pressure ridge to the southeast, and
a frontal zone to the northwest during the first half of this
period. This half of the period, will mainly be dry, but afternoon
convection can not be ruled out, largely due to sea breeze
interactions and upper waves.

The frontal zone is expected to sink southeast into area and stall
for Tuesday through Wednesday. This boundary will be a focus
mechanism for convective development. At this time, models depict
the boundary pushing through for Thursday, so better chance for
Thursday to be a dry day.

While temperatures will trend above normal throughout this period,
the warmest stretch will be during the first half of the period,
before the front arrives. A noticeable airmass change is expected
following the frontal passage, with Thursday not only a little
cooler, but with dewpoints falling into the 50s and 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 104 PM EDT Thu May 23 2024

A brief period of restrictions in light fog will be possible toward
dawn Friday at KVQQ, otherwise Prevailing VFR conditions forecast.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 202 PM EDT Thu May 23 2024

High pressure ridge will drift south southeast of the region
through Friday. The region will be between the ridge to the south
southeast, and an approaching frontal system late in the weekend
into early next week. The frontal zone will move southeast into
the area and stall Tuesday into Wednesday, before passing through
Thursday.

Rip Currents: Moderate through Friday

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  68  91  70  93 /   0  10  10  20
SSI  72  87  73  90 /   0  10  10  20
JAX  67  93  70  94 /   0  10   0  20
SGJ  70  90  71  92 /   0   0   0  20
GNV  67  93  67  93 /   0  10   0  20
OCF  66  93  68  93 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$