517
FXUS62 KJAX 220654
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
254 AM EDT Wed May 22 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 251 AM EDT Wed May 22 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Low stratus and patchy to areas of fog will develop until just
after sunrise with light easterly winds a bit higher at the coast
8-12 mph and 5-10 mph inland as weak high pressure ridging settles
across the Atlantic waters just east of the GA coast. A few brief,
transient showers may develop along the westward moving Atlantic
seabreeze, especially west of highway 301 where some stronger
low level instability will be located, but by and large dry air
aloft and subsidence will prevent organized shower development
through this afternoon and overnight. Highs will be warmer by
a few degrees compared to Tuesday with upper 80s inland to around
90 over north central FL and mid 80s at the coast.

Tonight, skies will begin mostly clear with low stratus and patchy
fog developing late. Lows will be near to a bit above normal with
mid to upper 60s inland and low 70s at the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday through Friday night)
Issued at 251 AM EDT Wed May 22 2024

Upper level ridge will be over the forecast area during this period,
leading to dry conditions with a warming trend. High temperatures
Thursday will be 85-90 east of I-95 corridor to the coast, lower
90s further inland. High temperatures Friday will be in the lower-
mid 90s inland, upper 80s coast...above normal for this time of
year.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 251 AM EDT Wed May 22 2024

Upper level ridge over the area will be flattened by shortwaves
passing over GA and the Carolinas this Weekend. These waves could
bring small rain chances to our forecast area, with better chances
N of the area.

A significant pattern change occurs Mon-Wed as intense upper trough
develops over the eastern U.S...bringing greater rain chances Tue-Wed.

Latest consensus guidance keeps above normal temperatures for the area
Mon-Tue, with somewhat lower temperatures Wed.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 150 AM EDT Wed May 22 2024

The 06Z TAF period will begin with MVFR to IFR ceilings and fog
inland with VFR conditions along the coast. Very light east
northeast flow from a low to the east and high pressure near the
Outer Banks of NC is bring few low clouds onshore 1.0 to 2.0 kft
that will transition to low stratus further inland through sunrise
with MVFR fog and IFR ceilings that may lower to IFR/LIFR fog
and ceilings at times, so have marked tempo groups at GNV and VQQ
for IFR/LIFR restrictions with IFR ceiling potentially at JAX
from 08-11Z and MVFR ceiling potentially at times at SSI for
low end MVFR ceilings.

After sunrise, easterly winds will increase to 7-10 knots through
midday as high pressure ridge sinks to just north of the area
today with the Atlantic seabreeze moving inland to CRG/JAX/VQQ
by 17/18/19Z. Not expecting coverage of any brief showers to
warrant VCSH as of this TAF forecast, but may adjust in the
upcoming forecast. Low stratus inland will lift to MVFR 12-14Z
and then become VFR after 15/16Z with high cirrus above moving
in from the northwest, then cloud cover dissolving from the
coast westward to inland areas through this afternoon. Easterly
winds 10-12 knots will subside after sunset to 4-6 knots.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 251 AM EDT Wed May 22 2024

Today, high pressure ridging will shift into the Southeast Georgia
waters with easterly light winds, then shift into the Northeast
Florida waters Thursday with southerly winds turning southeasterly
and increasing nearshore due to the Atlantic seabreeze circulation
which will continue each afternoon from Friday through the weekend.
Winds will become more southwesterly early next week with storm
chances increasing as a cold front approaches form the northwest.

Rip Currents: Moderate Risk Today and Thursday for all area
beaches.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  88  68  91  70 /  10  10   0   0
SSI  83  72  85  72 /  10   0   0   0
JAX  87  69  91  70 /  10   0   0   0
SGJ  85  70  88  71 /   0   0   0   0
GNV  90  67  92  68 /  10   0  10   0
OCF  91  68  93  69 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$