209
FXUS62 KJAX 220551
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
151 AM EDT Wed May 22 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 825 PM EDT Tue May 21 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Forecast remains on track through tonight and into Wednesday
morning with patchy to locally dense areas of fog developing in
the early morning hours on Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 137 PM EDT Tue May 21 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Rest of this afternoon/evening...Forecast remains on track with
near term model guidance still suggesting that a combination of
coastal trough moving onshore and East coast sea breeze
development an inland push through the afternoon hours will kick
off scattered showers and potential isolated thunderstorms across
NE FL, mainly south of the I-10 corridor. PWATs already around 1
inch or so and expected to increase closer to 1.5 inches as the
sea breeze and mid level impulse push onshore through the day. Max
temps at or slightly below normal levels with highs in the 80s
for most locations. Breezy Northeast winds will expected at the
coast in the 15-20G25-30 mph range with 10-15G20 mph winds
expected further inland.

Tonight...Rainfall chances will fade quickly around sunset with
the loss of daytime heating with skies becoming mostly clear
overnight and lows expected in the 60s inland and near 70 along
the coast. Patchy to areas of fog expected towards sunrise with
locally dense fog possible over inland areas, mainly along the
I-10 corridor northward across inland SE GA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday through Thursday night)
Issued at 137 PM EDT Tue May 21 2024

High pressure along the east coast continues the onshore wind
flow, allowing the sea-breeze to make its way in just east of the
301 corridor. An upper level ridge moves in from the west,
bringing drier conditions to the region. Mostly clear skies will
allow temperatures to warm up into the upper 80s to low 90s with
temperatures in the low to mid 80s along the coast. overnight
temperatures will be in the mid to upper 60s, low 70s along the
coast with chances of patchy fog for SE GA.

Thursday, another dry day with winds beginning to shift to the
southeast in the morning becoming southwest in the afternoon as
central high surface pressure slowly makes its way off the
Atlantic coast. The sea-breeze will again make its way inland with
windier conditions of 8-9mph sticking closer to the coast. Daytime
temperatures will be in the low 90s area wide with temperatures in
the mid to upper 80s along the coast. Thursday night, mostly clear
skies with temperatures in the upper 60s to low 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 137 PM EDT Tue May 21 2024

Upper level ridging sticks around for the forecast period with
surface ridging slowly weakens into the beginning of next week.
Local troughing caused by the sea-breeze could bring some
afternoon and evening showers with isolated thunderstorms into the
weekend. Temperatures will stick around the low to mid 90s with
overnight temperatures in the low 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 150 AM EDT Wed May 22 2024

The 06Z TAF period will begin with MVFR to IFR ceilings and fog
inland with VFR conditions along the coast. Very light east
northeast flow from a low to the east and high pressure near the
Outer Banks of NC is bring few low clouds onshore 1.0 to 2.0 kft
that will transition to low stratus further inland through sunrise
with MVFR fog and IFR ceilings that may lower to IFR/LIFR fog
and ceilings at times, so have marked tempo groups at GNV and VQQ
for IFR/LIFR restrictions with IFR ceiling potentially at JAX
from 08-11Z and MVFR ceiling potentially at times at SSI for
low end MVFR ceilings.

After sunrise, easterly winds will increase to 7-10 knots through
midday as high pressure ridge sinks to just north of the area
today with the Atlantic seabreeze moving inland to CRG/JAX/VQQ
by 17/18/19Z. Not expecting coverage of any brief showers to
warrant VCSH as of this TAF forecast, but may adjust in the
upcoming forecast. Low stratus inland will lift to MVFR 12-14Z
and then become VFR after 15/16Z with high cirrus above moving
in from the northwest, then cloud cover dissolving from the
coast westward to inland areas through this afternoon. Easterly
winds 10-12 knots will subside after sunset to 4-6 knots.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 329 AM EDT Tue May 21 2024

Northeasterly flow will decrease some Today and Wednesday with high
pressure shifting southward off the east coast. As the high
shifts well E of the forecast area Thursday through Saturday,
winds will become more southerly across the waters. Wind speeds
are expected to be 5-10 kts with 2-3 ft seas Thursday through
Saturday.

.Rip Currents: Moderate Risk Today and Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  89  67  92  69 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  83  71  86  73 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  87  67  91  69 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  85  69  88  71 /   0   0   0   0
GNV  90  66  92  68 /  10   0  10   0
OCF  91  68  93  68 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$